Trust · Methodology
How Navurex turns match data into a probability.
The core probabilities are produced by Navurex model code. AI is used to explain supplied model/data signals in language—not to invent the core 1X2 probability.
01 · Inputs
Recent results are weighted by competition.
Navurex uses up to five recent completed matches for the current recent-form layer. A friendly should not influence the model as much as a competitive league match.
02 · Rating
Five rating dimensions.
Where current league standings are usable, the overall team rating combines recent form (30%), attack (20%), defence (20%), goal balance (10%) and league strength (20%). If league strength is unavailable, the remaining components are re-normalized instead of inserting a fake value.
League strength itself uses current position, points per game and goal difference per game. At the beginning of a season, standings may be unavailable or less informative.
03 · Probability
Ratings become a 1X2 distribution.
Navurex converts the two overall ratings into home-win, draw and away-win weights. The draw weight rises when the teams are closer together. Published values are normalized to 100% and guardrails prevent broken/NaN inputs from leaking into the interface.
Model Confidence is not the same as Data Quality. Confidence reflects how separated the model outcomes are; Data Quality describes whether the underlying match sample is strong enough to publish confidently.
04 · Data quality
The model can say “not enough data.”
A prediction is unavailable when the effective sample is below one match or one side has no competitive recent match. Stronger samples can be labelled High or Medium; smaller samples are explicitly marked Limited data. Friendlies remain visible as context but contribute only 25% model weight.
05 · Simulation
10,000 deterministic Poisson simulations.
Expected goals blend competition-weighted recent scoring, opponent defending and the current Navurex attack/defence ratings. Navurex then runs 10,000 seeded Poisson simulations. The same match and same model inputs produce the same simulation sequence for the same model version, which makes results reproducible rather than visually random on every refresh.
06 · Corner Intelligence
Corners use a separate fixture-statistics model.
Corner Intelligence does not reuse the 1X2 probability as a shortcut. Navurex reads recorded Corner Kicks from up to five recent completed matches per team, applies the same competition weighting principle, and calculates weighted corners-for and corners-against profiles. A team projection blends its own recent corner generation (55%) with the opponent's recent corner allowance (45%). Smaller samples are shrunk toward the pooled recent-match baseline so one unusual fixture cannot dominate the public number.
The displayed total-corner percentages use a Poisson-style count approximation around the projected total. If either team has too little recorded corner coverage, Navurex marks the module Limited or Unavailable rather than filling missing statistics with zero.
Frozen history
Predictions should not change after the result.
Before kickoff, Navurex can save the current prediction and simulation as a versioned snapshot. After kickoff, a valid stored snapshot becomes the source of truth for public performance tracking. Older matches without a snapshot may be reconstructed only from data available before that kickoff and are identified separately in the model pipeline.
View model performance →Model scope
Core rating vs. match context
Navurex separates repeatable model inputs from external match context so a missing injury report or late lineup change is never silently presented as if it were already inside the rating.
Included in the core rating
Recent form, attack, defence, goal balance and league strength when usable. These inputs are structured, repeatable and are the basis of the core team rating.
Not guaranteed in the core rating
Injuries, confirmed lineups, tactical changes, transfers, weather and head-to-head history may be incomplete, delayed or absent. They should be treated as separate context until Navurex can verify and model them consistently.
Current limitations
Navurex does not currently guarantee complete injury, confirmed-lineup, tactical, transfer, weather or head-to-head context in the core rating. Model inputs can be incomplete or delayed. Probabilities are estimates, not certainties, and are not betting advice.