Published model
Ferroviária
42%
Draw
26%
Maringá
32%
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Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 22:00
22:00
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
83/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
95%
Effective history
97%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Ferroviária
Last 5
Maringá
5
Matches played
5
7
Goals scored
5
4
Goals conceded
2
+3
Goal difference
+3
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Maringá win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Ferroviária
39%
Draw
28%
Maringá
33%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Ferroviária
46%
Draw
23%
Maringá
31%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Ferroviária
42%
Draw
26%
Maringá
32%
Ferroviária
+3 pp
Draw
-2 pp
Maringá
-1 pp
Context evidence
64 → 69
61 → 62
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Ferroviária
Momentum score
20
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Maringá
Momentum score
53
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Ferroviária
42%
Draw
26%
Maringá
32%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 64Ferroviária
40%
Draw
27%
Maringá
33%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Ferroviária
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
60.1
Recent 5 strength
64.2
Rest days
13.1
14-day fixtures
1
Maringá
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
60.9
Recent 5 strength
58.6
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
9
Ferroviária +0.5 performance-index edge
Paysandu
Confiança
Inter De Limeira
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
40%
1.40
Average goals
1.00
0.80
Average conceded
0.40
Competition
Current season
Ferroviária
Season
Maringá
#3
Position
#4
30
Points
30
19
Played
19
8W 6D 5L
Record
8W 6D 5L
+7
Goal difference
+2
79
League strength signal
73

vs Inter De Limeira
2–0
Home

@ Paysandu
1–0
Away

@ Brusque
1–1
Away

vs Brusque
3–2
Home

vs Paysandu
1–0
Home

@ Inter De Limeira
3–3
Away

vs Confiança
1–0
Home

@ Ypiranga-RS
1–0
Away

vs Paysandu
4–0
Home

@ Figueirense
2–2
Away

vs Maranhão
0–0
Home

@ Ituano
1–3
Away

vs Caxias
0–1
Home

@ AO Itabaiana
1–0
Away

vs Inter De Limeira
2–0
Home

vs Barra
1–0
Home

@ Santa Cruz
1–1
Away

@ Amazonas
1–2
Away

vs Brusque
1–0
Home

vs Juventus
1–2
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Ferroviária
0.89
xG
Maringá
0.8
xG
Most likely scores
0.89
Ferroviária avg
0.78
Maringá avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
18.7%
0
31.4%
1
26.6%
2
14.4%
3
6.1%
4
2%
5
0.8%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Botafogo PB
2–0
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