Published model
Sporting Trestina
12%
Draw
40%
Santegidiese
48%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
50/100
Limited · confidence cap 64
20-match history
35%
Effective history
47%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
8/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Sporting Trestina
Last 5
Santegidiese
5
Matches played
5
2
Goals scored
4
7
Goals conceded
7
-5
Goal difference
-3
20%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Santegidiese win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Sporting Trestina
12%
Draw
40%
Santegidiese
48%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Sporting Trestina
13%
Draw
40%
Santegidiese
47%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Sporting Trestina
12%
Draw
40%
Santegidiese
48%
Sporting Trestina
0 pp
Draw
0 pp
Santegidiese
0 pp
Context evidence
24 → 26
34 → 36
Venue samples
4 / 4
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Sporting Trestina
Momentum score
23
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Santegidiese
Momentum score
29
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
0/5
Reliability audit
• Fewer than 12 valid completed matches are available for at least one team.
• Friendlies or low-weight competitions reduce the effective 20-match sample.
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
• No common-opponent bridge is available in the 20-match window.
Published model
Sporting Trestina
12%
Draw
40%
Santegidiese
48%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 52Sporting Trestina
15%
Draw
40%
Santegidiese
45%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Sporting Trestina
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
38.6
Recent 5 strength
29.2
Rest days
8.0
14-day fixtures
1
Santegidiese
7/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
44.1
Recent 5 strength
36.8
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
0
Common opponents
0
No shared opponent evidence in the 20-match window.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
20%
0.40
Average goals
0.80
1.40
Average conceded
1.40
Competition
Current season
Sporting Trestina
Season
Santegidiese
#18
Position
#13
4
Points
8
8
Played
8
1W 1D 6L
Record
2W 2D 4L
-9
Goal difference
-4
10
League strength signal
32

@ Pietralunga
2–0
Away

vs Teramo
0–2
Home

@ Ancona
2–0
Away

vs Termoli Calcio
2–0
Home

@ Atletico Ascoli
1–0
Away

vs Fossombrone
0–1
Home

@ Lanciano FC
0–0
Away

vs Vigor Senigallia
2–5
Home

@ Gubbio
2–0
Away

@ Robur Siena
4–4
Away

vs Prato
0–2
Home

@ Sansepolcro
1–1
Away

vs Gavorrano
1–1
Home

@ Terranuova Traiana
0–0
Away

vs Scandicci
1–1
Home

@ Poggibonsi
1–2
Away

vs Orvietana Calcio
1–1
Home

@ Tau Altopascio
0–1
Away

vs Cannara
2–1
Home

@ Camaiore
1–2
Away

Last 20 completed matches

@ L'Aquila
2–1
Away

vs Real Giulianova
1–3
Home

@ Maceratese
1–1
Away

vs Angelana
1–0
Home

@ Notaresco
1–0
Away

vs Recanatese
1–1
Home

@ Montecchio Gallo
1–2
Away
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Sporting Trestina
0.72
xG
Santegidiese
0.98
xG
Most likely scores
0.72
Sporting Trestina avg
0.98
Santegidiese avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
18%
0
31.3%
1
26.5%
2
15%
3
6%
4
2.3%
5
0.8%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions