Published model
Termoli Calcio
23%
Draw
37%
Atletico Ascoli
40%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
85/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
99%
Core completeness
99%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Termoli Calcio
Last 5
Atletico Ascoli
5
Matches played
5
6
Goals scored
10
9
Goals conceded
7
-3
Goal difference
+3
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Atletico Ascoli win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Termoli Calcio
21%
Draw
35%
Atletico Ascoli
44%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Termoli Calcio
25%
Draw
39%
Atletico Ascoli
36%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Termoli Calcio
23%
Draw
37%
Atletico Ascoli
40%
Termoli Calcio
+2 pp
Draw
+2 pp
Atletico Ascoli
-4 pp
Context evidence
45 → 49
58 → 55
Venue samples
4 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Termoli Calcio
Momentum score
41
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Atletico Ascoli
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Termoli Calcio
23%
Draw
37%
Atletico Ascoli
40%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58Termoli Calcio
23%
Draw
39%
Atletico Ascoli
38%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Termoli Calcio
20/20
V3 research coverage
12/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
45.5
Recent 5 strength
44.6
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Atletico Ascoli
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
52.3
Recent 5 strength
57.6
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
12
Termoli Calcio +1.5 performance-index edge
Teramo
Fossombrone
Vigor Senigallia
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
60%
1.20
Average goals
2.00
1.80
Average conceded
1.40
Competition
Current season
Termoli Calcio
Season
Atletico Ascoli
#12
Position
#7
10
Points
13
8
Played
8
3W 1D 4L
Record
4W 1D 3L
-1
Goal difference
+3
40
League strength signal
60

@ Teramo
1–0
Away

@ Fossombrone
1–2
Away

@ L'Aquila
5–2
Away

vs Lanciano FC
2–0
Home

@ Sporting Trestina
2–0
Away

vs Vigor Senigallia
1–2
Home

@ Real Giulianova
0–0
Away

vs Angelana
1–0
Home

@ L'Aquila
1–0
Away

vs L'Aquila
1–1
Home

@ Ostia Mare
1–0
Away

vs Notaresco
1–2
Home

vs Sammaurese
1–0
Home

@ Teramo
0–0
Away

@ Sora
0–1
Away

vs Fossombrone
0–0
Home

@ Maceratese
0–1
Away

vs Vigor Senigallia
1–1
Home

@ Chieti
1–0
Away

vs Real Giulianova
0–1
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Termoli Calcio
1.15
xG
Atletico Ascoli
1.69
xG
Most likely scores
1.16
Termoli Calcio avg
1.68
Atletico Ascoli avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
6.2%
0
16.4%
1
23.5%
2
21.7%
3
16.1%
4
9.1%
5
7%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions