Published model
L'Aquila
67%
Draw
12%
Foligno Calcio
21%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
85/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
99%
Core completeness
99%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
L'Aquila
Last 5
Foligno Calcio
5
Matches played
5
15
Goals scored
5
5
Goals conceded
2
+10
Goal difference
+3
100%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Foligno Calcio win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
L'Aquila
66%
Draw
12%
Foligno Calcio
22%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
L'Aquila
68%
Draw
12%
Foligno Calcio
20%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
L'Aquila
67%
Draw
12%
Foligno Calcio
21%
L'Aquila
+1 pp
Draw
0 pp
Foligno Calcio
-1 pp
Context evidence
83 → 83
63 → 61
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
L'Aquila
Momentum score
50
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Foligno Calcio
Momentum score
50
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
L'Aquila
67%
Draw
12%
Foligno Calcio
21%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 85L'Aquila
64%
Draw
15%
Foligno Calcio
21%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
L'Aquila
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
62.5
Recent 5 strength
87.9
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Foligno Calcio
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
54.1
Recent 5 strength
64.2
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
5
L'Aquila +12.5 performance-index edge
Recanatese
Pietralunga
Notaresco
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
60%
3.00
Average goals
1.00
1.00
Average conceded
0.40
Competition
Current season
L'Aquila
Season
Foligno Calcio
#1
Position
#4
20
Points
16
8
Played
8
6W 2D 0L
Record
5W 1D 2L
+12
Goal difference
+2
91
League strength signal
72

@ Recanatese
2–3
Away

vs Santegidiese
2–1
Home

vs Termoli Calcio
5–2
Home

@ Pietralunga
0–3
Away

vs Teramo
2–0
Home

@ Ancona
2–2
Away

vs Atletico Ascoli
0–0
Home

@ Fossombrone
0–4
Away

vs Termoli Calcio
1–0
Home

@ Termoli Calcio
1–1
Away

vs Ancona
0–0
Home

@ Ostia Mare
2–1
Away

@ Sammaurese
0–0
Away

vs Notaresco
0–2
Home

@ Fossombrone
1–0
Away

vs Teramo
1–3
Home

@ Vigor Senigallia
2–2
Away

vs Sora
2–3
Home

@ Real Giulianova
2–2
Away

vs Maceratese
1–0
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
L'Aquila
1.89
xG
Foligno Calcio
0.84
xG
Most likely scores
1.9
L'Aquila avg
0.85
Foligno Calcio avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
6.3%
0
17.8%
1
23.8%
2
22.3%
3
15.8%
4
8%
5
6%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ Montecchio Gallo
1–1
Away