Published model
Lanciano FC
26%
Draw
32%
Notaresco
42%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
59/100
Medium · confidence cap 74
20-match history
40%
Effective history
53%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Lanciano FC
Last 5
Notaresco
5
Matches played
5
12
Goals scored
9
11
Goals conceded
5
+1
Goal difference
+4
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.
Draw
Notaresco win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Lanciano FC
24%
Draw
31%
Notaresco
45%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Lanciano FC
28%
Draw
33%
Notaresco
39%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Lanciano FC
26%
Draw
32%
Notaresco
42%
Lanciano FC
+2 pp
Draw
+1 pp
Notaresco
-3 pp
Context evidence
51 → 54
62 → 60
Venue samples
4 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Lanciano FC
Momentum score
14
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Notaresco
Momentum score
95
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• Fewer than 12 valid completed matches are available for at least one team.
• Friendlies or low-weight competitions reduce the effective 20-match sample.
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Lanciano FC
26%
Draw
32%
Notaresco
42%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 62Lanciano FC
24%
Draw
33%
Notaresco
43%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Lanciano FC
8/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
48.6
Recent 5 strength
58.6
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Notaresco
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
56.9
Recent 5 strength
65.2
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
5
Lanciano FC -4.1 performance-index edge
Montecchio Gallo
Recanatese
Foligno Calcio
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
60%
2.40
Average goals
1.80
2.20
Average conceded
1.00
Competition
Current season
Lanciano FC
Season
Notaresco
#11
Position
#5
10
Points
14
8
Played
8
3W 1D 4L
Record
4W 2D 2L
-1
Goal difference
+4
42
League strength signal
67
@ Atletico Ascoli
5–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Lanciano FC
1.84
xG
Notaresco
1.98
xG
Most likely scores
1.85
Lanciano FC avg
1.98
Notaresco avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
2.1%
0
8%
1
16.4%
2
20.2%
3
19.1%
4
16%
5
18.3%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions