Published model
Real Giulianova
35%
Draw
40%
Pietralunga
25%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
58/100
Medium · confidence cap 74
20-match history
40%
Effective history
53%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Real Giulianova
Last 5
Pietralunga
5
Matches played
5
10
Goals scored
4
8
Goals conceded
6
+2
Goal difference
-2
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Pietralunga win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Real Giulianova
37%
Draw
40%
Pietralunga
23%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Real Giulianova
34%
Draw
40%
Pietralunga
26%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Real Giulianova
35%
Draw
40%
Pietralunga
25%
Real Giulianova
-2 pp
Draw
0 pp
Pietralunga
+2 pp
Context evidence
52 → 51
40 → 42
Venue samples
5 / 4
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Real Giulianova
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Pietralunga
Momentum score
77
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
4/5
Reliability audit
• Fewer than 12 valid completed matches are available for at least one team.
• Friendlies or low-weight competitions reduce the effective 20-match sample.
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Real Giulianova
35%
Draw
40%
Pietralunga
25%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 54Real Giulianova
42%
Draw
39%
Pietralunga
19%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Real Giulianova
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
53.9
Recent 5 strength
58.6
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Pietralunga
8/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
41.9
Recent 5 strength
48.0
Rest days
8.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
4
Real Giulianova +41.7 performance-index edge
Foligno Calcio
Maceratese
Recanatese
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
40%
2.00
Average goals
0.80
1.60
Average conceded
1.20
Competition
Current season
Real Giulianova
Season
Pietralunga
#10
Position
#14
10
Points
8
8
Played
8
3W 1D 4L
Record
2W 2D 4L
0
Goal difference
-4
45
League strength signal
30

@ Foligno Calcio
0–1
Away

vs Ancona
0–2
Home

@ Santegidiese
1–3
Away

vs Atletico Ascoli
4–2
Home

@ Teramo
3–2
Away

vs Termoli Calcio
0–0
Home

@ Vigor Senigallia
1–0
Away

vs Fossombrone
1–2
Home

vs Ostia Mare
4–0
Home

@ Maceratese
1–1
Away

@ Chieti
1–0
Away

vs Castelfidardo Calcio
0–0
Home

@ Unipomezia
0–0
Away

vs Atletico Ascoli
1–0
Home

@ Recanatese
0–0
Away

vs Ancona
1–2
Home

@ Victor San Marino
1–2
Away

vs L'Aquila
2–2
Home

@ Termoli Calcio
0–1
Away

vs Sammaurese
3–2
Home

Last 20 completed matches

vs Sporting Trestina
2–0
Home

@ Angelana
0–1
Away

vs L'Aquila
0–3
Home

@ Notaresco
1–1
Away

vs Maceratese
0–2
Home

@ Montecchio Gallo
2–1
Away

vs Foligno Calcio
0–1
Home

@ Recanatese
0–0
Away
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Real Giulianova
1.57
xG
Pietralunga
1
xG
Most likely scores
1.57
Real Giulianova avg
0.99
Pietralunga avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
7.8%
0
19.7%
1
25.4%
2
21.7%
3
13.9%
4
6.9%
5
4.6%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions