Published model
Fidelis Andria
41%
Draw
40%
Francavilla
19%
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Sun, 01 Nov 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
85/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
99%
Core completeness
99%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Fidelis Andria
Last 5
Francavilla
5
Matches played
5
6
Goals scored
3
5
Goals conceded
6
+1
Goal difference
-3
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Francavilla win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Fidelis Andria
40%
Draw
40%
Francavilla
20%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Fidelis Andria
43%
Draw
40%
Francavilla
17%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Fidelis Andria
41%
Draw
40%
Francavilla
19%
Fidelis Andria
+1 pp
Draw
0 pp
Francavilla
-1 pp
Context evidence
48 → 51
27 → 30
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Fidelis Andria
Momentum score
65
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Francavilla
Momentum score
62
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Fidelis Andria
41%
Draw
40%
Francavilla
19%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58Fidelis Andria
37%
Draw
40%
Francavilla
23%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Fidelis Andria
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
50.4
Recent 5 strength
62.7
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
1
Francavilla
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
44.0
Recent 5 strength
31.2
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
13
Fidelis Andria -1.7 performance-index edge
Bisceglie
Gladiator
Brindisi
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
0%
1.20
Average goals
0.60
1.00
Average conceded
1.20
Competition
Current season
Fidelis Andria
Season
Francavilla
#11
Position
#17
10
Points
5
8
Played
8
3W 1D 4L
Record
1W 2D 5L
-3
Goal difference
-4
41
League strength signal
17

vs Virtus Francavilla
2–1
Home

@ Real Normanna
0–1
Away

vs Bisceglie
1–1
Home

vs Real Forio 2014
2–1
Home

@ Turris
2–0
Away

@ Gladiator
3–2
Away

vs Manfredonia
1–1
Home

@ Brindisi
1–0
Away

vs Gravina
1–3
Home

vs Pompei
1–2
Home

@ Manfredonia
0–0
Away

vs Sarnese
2–1
Home

@ Virtus Francavilla
0–2
Away

vs Francavilla
0–0
Home

vs Real Acerrana
1–0
Home

@ Afragolese
2–1
Away

vs Heraclea
1–0
Home

@ Nardò
3–2
Away

vs Città di Fasano
2–0
Home

@ Nola 1925
2–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Fidelis Andria
1.13
xG
Francavilla
0.69
xG
Most likely scores
1.12
Fidelis Andria avg
0.7
Francavilla avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
15.8%
0
29.8%
1
26.9%
2
16.3%
3
7.6%
4
2.5%
5
1.1%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Brindisi
0–1
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