Published model
Brindisi
67%
Draw
23%
Ebolitana
10%
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Sun, 01 Nov 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
Home
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
56/100
Limited · confidence cap 64
20-match history
40%
Effective history
53%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
8/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Brindisi
Last 5
Ebolitana
5
Matches played
5
8
Goals scored
2
2
Goals conceded
8
+6
Goal difference
-6
80%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Ebolitana win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Brindisi
67%
Draw
23%
Ebolitana
10%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Brindisi
67%
Draw
23%
Ebolitana
10%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Brindisi
67%
Draw
23%
Ebolitana
10%
Brindisi
0 pp
Draw
0 pp
Ebolitana
0 pp
Context evidence
66 → 67
32 → 30
Venue samples
5 / 4
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Brindisi
Momentum score
77
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Ebolitana
Momentum score
29
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
4/5
Reliability audit
• Fewer than 12 valid completed matches are available for at least one team.
• Friendlies or low-weight competitions reduce the effective 20-match sample.
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Brindisi
67%
Draw
23%
Ebolitana
10%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 64Brindisi
63%
Draw
26%
Ebolitana
11%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Brindisi
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
58.0
Recent 5 strength
72.8
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
1
Ebolitana
8/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
38.9
Recent 5 strength
33.8
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
0
Common opponents
4
Brindisi +44.7 performance-index edge
Nardò
Nocerina
Manfredonia
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
20%
1.60
Average goals
0.40
0.40
Average conceded
1.60
Competition
Current season
Brindisi
Season
Ebolitana
#5
Position
#13
15
Points
8
8
Played
8
5W 0D 3L
Record
2W 2D 4L
+3
Goal difference
-6
68
League strength signal
32

vs Nardò
2–0
Home

@ Nocerina
0–1
Away

vs Real Normanna
3–0
Home

@ Francavilla
0–1
Away

vs Turris
1–2
Home

@ Virtus Francavilla
2–1
Away

vs Fidelis Andria
1–0
Home

@ Real Forio 2014
4–1
Away

vs Francavilla
0–0
Home

@ Manfredonia
2–2
Away

vs Nardò
3–2
Home

@ Nocerina
2–0
Away

vs Ugento
3–0
Home

@ Matera
2–2
Away

vs Angri Calcio
3–1
Home

@ Città di Fasano
3–0
Away

vs Virtus Francavilla
1–1
Home

vs Martina Franca
3–1
Home

@ Costa D’Amalfi
2–2
Away

vs Casarano
0–2
Home

Last 20 completed matches

@ USD Palmese
2–0
Away

vs Martina Franca
0–2
Home

@ Ischia
1–1
Away

vs Melfi
1–0
Home

@ Manfredonia
3–0
Away

vs Bisceglie
2–1
Home

vs Nardò
1–1
Home

@ Nocerina
2–1
Away
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Brindisi
1.63
xG
Ebolitana
0.33
xG
Most likely scores
1.63
Brindisi avg
0.33
Ebolitana avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
13.9%
0
28.1%
1
26.9%
2
17.8%
3
8.7%
4
3.4%
5
1.3%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions