Published model
Real Normanna
15%
Draw
17%
Turris
68%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
65/100
Medium · confidence cap 74
20-match history
55%
Effective history
67%
Core completeness
98%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Real Normanna
Last 5
Turris
5
Matches played
5
5
Goals scored
9
8
Goals conceded
3
-3
Goal difference
+6
20%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Turris win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Real Normanna
14%
Draw
15%
Turris
71%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Real Normanna
16%
Draw
19%
Turris
65%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Real Normanna
15%
Draw
17%
Turris
68%
Real Normanna
+1 pp
Draw
+2 pp
Turris
-3 pp
Context evidence
47 → 47
76 → 72
Venue samples
4 / 5
Opponent coverage
90%
Momentum
Real Normanna
Momentum score
35
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Turris
Momentum score
56
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• Fewer than 12 valid completed matches are available for at least one team.
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Real Normanna
15%
Draw
17%
Turris
68%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 74Real Normanna
18%
Draw
22%
Turris
60%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Real Normanna
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
51.0
Recent 5 strength
42.0
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Turris
11/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
63.1
Recent 5 strength
74.6
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
7
Real Normanna -28.1 performance-index edge
Gladiator
Fidelis Andria
Brindisi
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
60%
1.00
Average goals
1.80
1.60
Average conceded
0.60
Competition
Current season
Real Normanna
Season
Turris
#9
Position
#2
11
Points
18
8
Played
8
3W 2D 3L
Record
5W 3D 0L
-1
Goal difference
+8
49
League strength signal
83

@ Gladiator
3–3
Away

vs Fidelis Andria
0–1
Home

@ Paganese
1–1
Away

@ Brindisi
3–0
Away

vs Gravina
1–0
Home

@ USD Palmese
3–4
Away

vs Martina Franca
1–2
Home

@ Ischia
2–2
Away

vs Melfi
2–0
Home

@ Gravina
3–2
Away

vs Città di Fasano
2–0
Home

@ Afragolese
0–0
Away

@ Martina Franca
2–0
Away

vs Paganese
1–0
Home

@ Barletta
1–0
Away

vs Ferrandina
3–1
Home

@ Pompei
0–1
Away

vs Manfredonia
1–0
Home

@ Francavilla
1–1
Away

vs Sarnese
2–2
Home

Last 20 completed matches

@ Real Forio 2014
1–2
Away

vs Manfredonia
3–0
Home

@ Nocerina
1–1
Away

@ Gladiator
1–1
Away

vs Fidelis Andria
2–0
Home

@ Brindisi
1–2
Away

vs Gravina
0–0
Home

@ USD Palmese
0–0
Away

vs Martina Franca
4–3
Home

@ Giugliano
3–1
Away

vs Cavese
1–2
Home
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Real Normanna
0.75
xG
Turris
1.78
xG
Most likely scores
0.75
Real Normanna avg
1.79
Turris avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
7.7%
0
20.2%
1
25.5%
2
21.3%
3
13.7%
4
7.4%
5
4.2%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions