Published model
Ischia
10%
Draw
15%
Martina Franca
75%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
Home
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
85/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
100%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Ischia
Last 5
Martina Franca
5
Matches played
5
6
Goals scored
9
8
Goals conceded
2
-2
Goal difference
+7
20%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Martina Franca win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Ischia
10%
Draw
15%
Martina Franca
75%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Ischia
10%
Draw
15%
Martina Franca
75%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Ischia
10%
Draw
15%
Martina Franca
75%
Ischia
0 pp
Draw
0 pp
Martina Franca
0 pp
Context evidence
32 → 38
77 → 77
Venue samples
5 / 4
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Ischia
Momentum score
74
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Martina Franca
Momentum score
77
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Ischia
10%
Draw
15%
Martina Franca
75%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 85Ischia
10%
Draw
17%
Martina Franca
73%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Ischia
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
37.0
Recent 5 strength
36.8
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Martina Franca
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
63.4
Recent 5 strength
73.8
Rest days
6.9
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
5
Ischia -50.9 performance-index edge
Ebolitana
Nardò
Nocerina
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
80%
1.20
Average goals
1.80
1.60
Average conceded
0.40
Competition
Current season
Ischia
Season
Martina Franca
#16
Position
#1
5
Points
18
8
Played
8
1W 2D 5L
Record
6W 0D 2L
-4
Goal difference
+9
19
League strength signal
86

@ Manfredonia
2–0
Away

vs Melfi
3–0
Home

vs Ebolitana
1–1
Home

@ Bisceglie
3–1
Away

vs Nardò
1–2
Home

@ Nocerina
3–2
Away

vs Real Normanna
2–2
Home

@ Francavilla
1–0
Away

@ Juve Stabia
5–1
Away

vs Olbia
2–1
Home

@ Nocerina
0–1
Away

vs Montespaccato
1–0
Home

@ USD Palmese
1–0
Away

vs Anzio
0–3
Home

@ Albalonga
4–0
Away

vs Scafatese
0–2
Home

@ Trastevere
1–1
Away

vs Olbia
1–3
Home

vs Flaminia
0–1
Home

@ Monastir
0–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Ischia
0.78
xG
Martina Franca
1.88
xG
Most likely scores
0.77
Ischia avg
1.88
Martina Franca avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
7.2%
0
19.6%
1
24.3%
2
21.3%
3
14.1%
4
7.7%
5
5.7%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions