Published model
Francavilla
14%
Draw
40%
Real Forio 2014
46%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
59/100
Medium · confidence cap 74
20-match history
40%
Effective history
53%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Francavilla
Last 5
Real Forio 2014
5
Matches played
5
3
Goals scored
5
6
Goals conceded
10
-3
Goal difference
-5
0%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Real Forio 2014 win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Francavilla
13%
Draw
40%
Real Forio 2014
47%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Francavilla
16%
Draw
40%
Real Forio 2014
44%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Francavilla
14%
Draw
40%
Real Forio 2014
46%
Francavilla
+1 pp
Draw
0 pp
Real Forio 2014
-1 pp
Context evidence
27 → 32
29 → 30
Venue samples
5 / 4
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Francavilla
Momentum score
62
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Real Forio 2014
Momentum score
41
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• Fewer than 12 valid completed matches are available for at least one team.
• Friendlies or low-weight competitions reduce the effective 20-match sample.
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Francavilla
14%
Draw
40%
Real Forio 2014
46%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 54Francavilla
19%
Draw
40%
Real Forio 2014
41%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Francavilla
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
44.0
Recent 5 strength
31.2
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
2
Real Forio 2014
8/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
36.2
Recent 5 strength
23.6
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
6
Francavilla -5.5 performance-index edge
Gravina
Gladiator
Martina Franca
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
0%
0.60
Average goals
1.00
1.20
Average conceded
2.00
Competition
Current season
Francavilla
Season
Real Forio 2014
#17
Position
#14
5
Points
7
8
Played
8
1W 2D 5L
Record
2W 1D 5L
-4
Goal difference
-3
17
League strength signal
29

@ Gravina
1–1
Away

vs Gladiator
1–1
Home

@ Martina Franca
1–0
Away

vs Brindisi
0–1
Home

@ Melfi
2–1
Away

vs USD Palmese
0–1
Home

@ Bisceglie
2–1
Away

vs Ischia
1–0
Home

vs Afragolese
2–0
Home

@ Sarnese
2–2
Away

@ Virtus Francavilla
0–3
Away

vs Real Acerrana
4–1
Home

@ Fidelis Andria
0–0
Away

vs Heraclea
2–2
Home

@ Nardò
2–1
Away

vs Città di Fasano
0–2
Home

@ Nola 1925
1–2
Away

vs Real Normanna
1–1
Home

@ Gravina
2–1
Away

vs Martina Franca
1–2
Home

Last 20 completed matches

vs Turris
1–2
Home

@ Virtus Francavilla
2–0
Away

@ Fidelis Andria
2–1
Away

vs Manfredonia
1–2
Home

@ Gravina
2–2
Away

vs Gladiator
2–1
Home

@ Martina Franca
2–0
Away

vs Brindisi
4–1
Home
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Francavilla
1.11
xG
Real Forio 2014
0.99
xG
Most likely scores
1.11
Francavilla avg
0.99
Real Forio 2014 avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
12.4%
0
25.5%
1
27.1%
2
18.6%
3
10.1%
4
4.3%
5
2.1%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions