Published model
Arconatese
10%
Draw
40%
Pontedera
50%
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Sun, 01 Nov 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
82/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
100%
Effective history
100%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
8/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Arconatese
Last 5
Pontedera
5
Matches played
5
3
Goals scored
3
11
Goals conceded
13
-8
Goal difference
-10
0%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Pontedera win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Arconatese
10%
Draw
40%
Pontedera
50%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Arconatese
10%
Draw
40%
Pontedera
50%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Arconatese
10%
Draw
40%
Pontedera
50%
Arconatese
0 pp
Draw
0 pp
Pontedera
0 pp
Context evidence
15 → 18
15 → 16
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Arconatese
Momentum score
47
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Pontedera
Momentum score
68
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
4/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Arconatese
10%
Draw
40%
Pontedera
50%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 64Arconatese
12%
Draw
40%
Pontedera
48%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Arconatese
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
33.8
Recent 5 strength
26.2
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
0
Pontedera
20/20
V3 research coverage
12/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
23.1
Recent 5 strength
24.2
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
0
Common opponents
4
Arconatese +10.0 performance-index edge
Città di Varese
Castellanzese
Pro Sesto
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
20%
0.60
Average goals
0.60
2.20
Average conceded
2.60
Competition
Current season
Arconatese
Season
Pontedera
#17
Position
#18
3
Points
3
8
Played
8
0W 3D 5L
Record
1W 0D 7L
-14
Goal difference
-16
9
League strength signal
6

vs Città di Varese
1–5
Home

@ Castellanzese
1–0
Away

vs Pro Sesto
1–1
Home

@ Pavia
1–1
Away

vs Pro Patria
0–3
Home

@ Pistoiese
5–0
Away

vs Correggese
1–1
Home

@ USD Casatese
2–1
Away

@ Breno
4–1
Away

vs Chievo
2–1
Home

@ Sangiuliano City
3–0
Away

vs Fanfulla
4–2
Home

@ Pro Palazzolo
3–0
Away

@ AC Magenta
1–1
Away

vs Sondrio
0–1
Home

@ Castellanzese
2–2
Away

vs USD Casatese
0–0
Home

@ Ciliverghe
3–2
Away

vs Vigasio
0–0
Home

@ Club Milano
0–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Arconatese
1.52
xG
Pontedera
1.32
xG
Most likely scores
1.51
Arconatese avg
1.3
Pontedera avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
5.8%
0
17.4%
1
23.5%
2
22.5%
3
15.4%
4
8.8%
5
6.7%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Cittadella Vis Modena
0–3
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