Published model
Città di Varese
52%
Draw
31%
Solbiatese
17%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
55/100
Limited · confidence cap 64
20-match history
35%
Effective history
47%
Core completeness
99%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Città di Varese
Last 5
Solbiatese
5
Matches played
5
12
Goals scored
5
10
Goals conceded
7
+2
Goal difference
-2
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Solbiatese win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Città di Varese
58%
Draw
27%
Solbiatese
15%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Città di Varese
47%
Draw
34%
Solbiatese
19%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Città di Varese
52%
Draw
31%
Solbiatese
17%
Città di Varese
-6 pp
Draw
+4 pp
Solbiatese
+2 pp
Context evidence
64 → 59
40 → 43
Venue samples
5 / 4
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Città di Varese
Momentum score
77
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Solbiatese
Momentum score
71
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
3/5
Reliability audit
• Fewer than 12 valid completed matches are available for at least one team.
• Friendlies or low-weight competitions reduce the effective 20-match sample.
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Città di Varese
52%
Draw
31%
Solbiatese
17%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58Città di Varese
44%
Draw
36%
Solbiatese
20%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Città di Varese
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
53.9
Recent 5 strength
52.7
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Solbiatese
7/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
44.8
Recent 5 strength
49.0
Rest days
8.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
3
Città di Varese -38.5 performance-index edge
Lentigione
Pro Patria
Pro Sesto
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
20%
2.40
Average goals
1.00
2.00
Average conceded
1.40
Competition
Current season
Città di Varese
Season
Solbiatese
#7
Position
#14
12
Points
7
8
Played
7
3W 3D 2L
Record
1W 4D 2L
+6
Goal difference
-4
59
League strength signal
30

@ Arconatese
1–5
Away

vs Oltrepò
2–0
Home

vs Pro Patria
2–5
Home

@ Crema
3–2
Away

vs Lentigione
1–1
Home

@ Pontedera
0–3
Away

@ Cittadella Vis Modena
0–0
Away

vs Pro Sesto
0–2
Home

@ Coriano
1–1
Away

vs Pro Palazzolo
3–2
Home

@ Renate
2–0
Away

@ Ligorna
5–3
Away

@ Biellese
1–2
Away

@ Lavagnese
2–3
Away

vs Saluzzo
1–0
Home

vs Derthona
1–0
Home

@ Celle Varazze
2–0
Away

vs Valenzana
1–2
Home

@ Sanremese
0–0
Away

Last 20 completed matches

vs Lentigione
2–2
Home

@ Pro Sesto
1–1
Away

@ Pro Patria
0–1
Away

vs Castellanzese
1–4
Home

@ Pavia
0–0
Away

vs USD Casatese
0–0
Home

@ Pistoiese
2–0
Away
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Città di Varese
1.93
xG
Solbiatese
1.2
xG
Most likely scores
1.93
Città di Varese avg
1.22
Solbiatese avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
4.4%
0
13.9%
1
20.3%
2
22.7%
3
17.7%
4
11.1%
5
9.8%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions