Published model
Pro Sesto
63%
Draw
20%
Sant'Angelo
17%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
85/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
99%
Core completeness
99%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Pro Sesto
Last 5
Sant'Angelo
5
Matches played
5
11
Goals scored
6
3
Goals conceded
7
+8
Goal difference
-1
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Sant'Angelo win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Pro Sesto
64%
Draw
20%
Sant'Angelo
16%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Pro Sesto
63%
Draw
20%
Sant'Angelo
17%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Pro Sesto
63%
Draw
20%
Sant'Angelo
17%
Pro Sesto
-1 pp
Draw
0 pp
Sant'Angelo
+1 pp
Context evidence
70 → 71
45 → 48
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Pro Sesto
Momentum score
14
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Sant'Angelo
Momentum score
86
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Pro Sesto
63%
Draw
20%
Sant'Angelo
17%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 82Pro Sesto
55%
Draw
25%
Sant'Angelo
20%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Pro Sesto
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
56.0
Recent 5 strength
68.2
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Sant'Angelo
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
47.2
Recent 5 strength
42.7
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
12
Pro Sesto -8.4 performance-index edge
Varesina
Lentigione
Correggese
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
40%
2.20
Average goals
1.20
0.60
Average conceded
1.40
Competition
Current season
Pro Sesto
Season
Sant'Angelo
#5
Position
#9
15
Points
11
8
Played
8
4W 3D 1L
Record
3W 2D 3L
+12
Goal difference
+1
72
League strength signal
50

@ Varesina
0–0
Away

vs Solbiatese
1–1
Home

@ Arconatese
1–1
Away

vs Oltrepò
6–1
Home

@ Crema
0–3
Away

vs Pontedera
3–0
Home

@ Città di Varese
0–2
Away

vs Lentigione
2–3
Home

@ Correggese
1–0
Away

vs Tuttocuoio
2–0
Home

@ Piacenza
3–1
Away

vs Pistoiese
0–0
Home

@ Pro Palazzolo
0–0
Away

vs Imolese
2–4
Home

@ Sangiuliano City
1–2
Away

vs Desenzano Calvina
1–2
Home

@ Rovato Vertovese
2–1
Away

vs Coriano
2–1
Home

@ Cittadella Vis Modena
2–1
Away

vs Sasso Marconi Zola
0–0
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Pro Sesto
1.98
xG
Sant'Angelo
0.81
xG
Most likely scores
1.98
Pro Sesto avg
0.79
Sant'Angelo avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
6.5%
0
17%
1
24.2%
2
22.4%
3
15%
4
8.6%
5
6.4%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Castellanzese
1–2
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