Published model
Pavia
17%
Draw
34%
USD Casatese
49%
Help improve Navurex
Optional first-party analytics help measure match usage, sign-up funnels and product performance. No advertising pixels or profiling. See the Cookie Policy.
Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
83/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
95%
Effective history
96%
Core completeness
99%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Pavia
Last 5
USD Casatese
5
Matches played
5
5
Goals scored
9
9
Goals conceded
8
-4
Goal difference
+1
0%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
USD Casatese win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Pavia
17%
Draw
36%
USD Casatese
47%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Pavia
17%
Draw
32%
USD Casatese
51%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Pavia
17%
Draw
34%
USD Casatese
49%
Pavia
0 pp
Draw
-2 pp
USD Casatese
+2 pp
Context evidence
39 → 40
57 → 60
Venue samples
5 / 3
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Pavia
Momentum score
47
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
USD Casatese
Momentum score
14
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Pavia
17%
Draw
34%
USD Casatese
49%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 75Pavia
16%
Draw
32%
USD Casatese
52%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Pavia
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
41.0
Recent 5 strength
29.9
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
USD Casatese
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
60.0
Recent 5 strength
56.6
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
12
Pavia -17.2 performance-index edge
Pistoiese
Varesina
Correggese
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
60%
1.00
Average goals
1.80
1.80
Average conceded
1.60
Competition
Current season
Pavia
Season
USD Casatese
#11
Position
#6
8
Points
13
8
Played
8
1W 5D 2L
Record
4W 1D 3L
+1
Goal difference
+1
40
League strength signal
61

@ Pistoiese
1–0
Away

vs Varesina
2–2
Home

vs Sant'Angelo
1–3
Home

@ Correggese
2–1
Away

vs Arconatese
1–1
Home

@ Sant'Angelo
0–0
Away

vs Solbiatese
0–0
Home

vs Crema
0–0
Home

vs Albinoleffe
0–4
Home

@ Pisa
6–1
Away

@ Breno
0–1
Away

@ Chievo
2–1
Away

vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
3–0
Home

@ USD Casatese
1–0
Away

vs Scanzorosciate
1–0
Home

@ Leon Monza e Brianza
3–1
Away

@ Vogherese
0–2
Away

vs Castellanzese
1–0
Home

@ Villa Valle
0–0
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Pavia
1.09
xG
USD Casatese
1.67
xG
Most likely scores
1.11
Pavia avg
1.67
USD Casatese avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
6.4%
0
16.8%
1
24.2%
2
22.4%
3
15.4%
4
8.3%
5
6.5%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Varesina
4–2
Home