Published model
Milazzo
39%
Draw
40%
Modica
21%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
57/100
Limited · confidence cap 64
20-match history
40%
Effective history
52%
Core completeness
99%
Freshness
8/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Milazzo
Last 5
Modica
5
Matches played
5
5
Goals scored
9
6
Goals conceded
6
-1
Goal difference
+3
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Modica win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Milazzo
36%
Draw
40%
Modica
24%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Milazzo
43%
Draw
39%
Modica
18%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Milazzo
39%
Draw
40%
Modica
21%
Milazzo
+3 pp
Draw
0 pp
Modica
-3 pp
Context evidence
51 → 55
40 → 39
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Milazzo
Momentum score
92
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Modica
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• Fewer than 12 valid completed matches are available for at least one team.
• Friendlies or low-weight competitions reduce the effective 20-match sample.
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Milazzo
39%
Draw
40%
Modica
21%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 59Milazzo
33%
Draw
40%
Modica
27%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Milazzo
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
44.5
Recent 5 strength
49.0
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
2
Modica
8/20
V3 research coverage
6/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
48.6
Recent 5 strength
58.2
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
0
Common opponents
7
Milazzo +7.8 performance-index edge
Digiesse PraiaTortora
Siracusa
Enna
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
60%
1.00
Average goals
1.80
1.20
Average conceded
1.20
Competition
Current season
Milazzo
Season
Modica
#7
Position
#14
13
Points
7
8
Played
7
4W 1D 3L
Record
2W 1D 4L
-1
Goal difference
-3
58
League strength signal
30

vs Digiesse PraiaTortora
3–1
Home

@ Gela
1–1
Away

vs Siracusa
1–0
Home

@ AC Palermo
3–0
Away

vs Sambiase
0–1
Home

@ Enna
0–1
Away

vs Ragusa
3–1
Home

@ CastrumFavara
3–0
Away

@ Messina
1–0
Away

vs Reggina
1–2
Home

vs Sambiase
0–1
Home

vs Vigor Lamezia
0–0
Home

@ Paternò
0–0
Away

@ Enna
3–1
Away

vs Savoia
1–0
Home

@ Gela
1–1
Away

vs Ragusa
0–1
Home

@ Acireale
3–1
Away

vs Vibonese
4–0
Home

@ AC Palermo
1–0
Away

Last 20 completed matches

@ Digiesse PraiaTortora
5–1
Away

@ Calcio Avola
0–4
Away

vs Enna
3–0
Home

@ Siracusa
1–0
Away

vs CastrumFavara
1–0
Home

@ Sambiase
1–0
Away

vs Reggina
0–1
Home

@ Ragusa
2–2
Away
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Milazzo
1.08
xG
Modica
1.36
xG
Most likely scores
1.07
Milazzo avg
1.36
Modica avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
8.6%
0
21.8%
1
25.4%
2
21.1%
3
13.1%
4
6.1%
5
3.9%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions