Published model
Sambiase
69%
Draw
19%
Nissa
12%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
85/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
100%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Sambiase
Last 5
Nissa
5
Matches played
5
8
Goals scored
5
4
Goals conceded
10
+4
Goal difference
-5
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Nissa win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Sambiase
67%
Draw
21%
Nissa
12%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Sambiase
71%
Draw
18%
Nissa
11%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Sambiase
69%
Draw
19%
Nissa
12%
Sambiase
+2 pp
Draw
-2 pp
Nissa
0 pp
Context evidence
68 → 72
36 → 39
Venue samples
4 / 4
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Sambiase
Momentum score
20
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Nissa
Momentum score
62
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Sambiase
69%
Draw
19%
Nissa
12%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 85Sambiase
61%
Draw
23%
Nissa
16%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Sambiase
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
62.3
Recent 5 strength
66.2
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Nissa
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
57.7
Recent 5 strength
29.2
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
13
Sambiase -5.1 performance-index edge
Calcio Avola
Trapani 1905
Licata
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
0%
1.60
Average goals
1.00
0.80
Average conceded
2.00
Competition
Current season
Sambiase
Season
Nissa
#2
Position
#9
17
Points
9
8
Played
8
5W 2D 1L
Record
2W 3D 3L
+6
Goal difference
-1
81
League strength signal
46

@ Calcio Avola
1–1
Away

vs Trapani 1905
1–0
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@ Licata
2–1
Away

vs Vigor Lamezia
4–1
Home

@ Milazzo
0–1
Away

vs Modica
1–0
Home

@ Digiesse PraiaTortora
1–1
Away

vs Gela
2–1
Home

@ Salernitana
2–1
Away

@ Reggina
4–2
Away

vs Nissa
1–1
Home

@ Milazzo
0–1
Away

@ Enna
1–1
Away

vs Paternò
3–1
Home

@ Acireale
1–2
Away

vs Gela
2–1
Home

@ Sancataldese
0–1
Away

vs AC Palermo
1–2
Home

@ Messina
0–1
Away

vs Igea Virtus
0–0
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Sambiase
1.84
xG
Nissa
0.81
xG
Most likely scores
1.85
Sambiase avg
0.81
Nissa avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
7.1%
0
18.2%
1
24.9%
2
21.9%
3
14.6%
4
7.8%
5
5.4%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Vibonese
0–2
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