Published model
Virtus Bolzano
15%
Draw
40%
FC Obermais
45%
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Sun, 01 Nov 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
81/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
95%
Effective history
97%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
8/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Virtus Bolzano
Last 5
FC Obermais
5
Matches played
5
6
Goals scored
6
16
Goals conceded
8
-10
Goal difference
-2
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
FC Obermais win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Virtus Bolzano
13%
Draw
40%
FC Obermais
47%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Virtus Bolzano
17%
Draw
40%
FC Obermais
43%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Virtus Bolzano
15%
Draw
40%
FC Obermais
45%
Virtus Bolzano
+2 pp
Draw
0 pp
FC Obermais
-2 pp
Context evidence
27 → 33
33 → 32
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Virtus Bolzano
Momentum score
41
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
FC Obermais
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Virtus Bolzano
15%
Draw
40%
FC Obermais
45%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58Virtus Bolzano
16%
Draw
40%
FC Obermais
44%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Virtus Bolzano
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
41.6
Recent 5 strength
38.4
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
0
FC Obermais
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
49.6
Recent 5 strength
37.8
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
0
Common opponents
8
Virtus Bolzano -20.2 performance-index edge
Altavilla
Luparense
Este
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
20%
1.20
Average goals
1.20
3.20
Average conceded
1.60
Competition
Current season
Virtus Bolzano
Season
FC Obermais
#14
Position
#16
9
Points
8
8
Played
8
3W 0D 5L
Record
2W 2D 4L
-15
Goal difference
-4
27
League strength signal
24

vs Bassano Virtus
2–1
Home

@ Campodarsego
4–1
Away

vs Calvi Noale
1–3
Home

@ Altavilla
7–0
Away

vs Sandona
2–1
Home

@ Luparense
4–0
Away

vs Brian Lignano
2–1
Home

@ Clodiense
2–0
Away

@ Modena
5–0
Away

vs Campodarsego
1–1
Home

@ Mori Santo Stefano
0–2
Away

vs Portogruaro
2–2
Home

vs Adriese
2–3
Home

@ Atletico Castegnato
1–1
Away

vs Este
2–1
Home

@ Mestre
1–0
Away

vs Clodiense
0–0
Home

@ Cjarlins Muzane
1–1
Away

vs Treviso
2–1
Home

@ Breno
2–0
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Virtus Bolzano
1.36
xG
FC Obermais
2.18
xG
Most likely scores
1.36
Virtus Bolzano avg
2.19
FC Obermais avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
2.9%
0
10.1%
1
18.1%
2
21.1%
3
19.4%
4
13.7%
5
14.7%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Mestre
2–2
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