Published model
Triestina
25%
Draw
40%
Mestre
35%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
85/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
99%
Core completeness
99%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Triestina
Last 5
Mestre
5
Matches played
5
5
Goals scored
4
6
Goals conceded
9
-1
Goal difference
-5
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Mestre win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Triestina
24%
Draw
40%
Mestre
36%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Triestina
27%
Draw
40%
Mestre
33%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Triestina
25%
Draw
40%
Mestre
35%
Triestina
+1 pp
Draw
0 pp
Mestre
-1 pp
Context evidence
44 → 47
45 → 44
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Triestina
Momentum score
77
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Mestre
Momentum score
32
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Triestina
25%
Draw
40%
Mestre
35%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58Triestina
24%
Draw
40%
Mestre
36%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Triestina
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
41.3
Recent 5 strength
49.0
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Mestre
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
44.3
Recent 5 strength
28.9
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
7
Triestina +8.4 performance-index edge
Conegliano
FC Obermais
Cjarlins Muzane
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
0%
1.00
Average goals
0.80
1.20
Average conceded
1.80
Competition
Current season
Triestina
Season
Mestre
#13
Position
#9
9
Points
10
8
Played
8
2W 3D 3L
Record
2W 4D 2L
-2
Goal difference
0
35
League strength signal
48

vs Conegliano
1–0
Home

@ LME
2–1
Away

vs FC Obermais
2–0
Home

@ Cjarlins Muzane
3–0
Away

vs Bassano Virtus
1–1
Home

@ Campodarsego
2–1
Away

vs Calvi Noale
1–1
Home

@ Altavilla
1–1
Away

vs Vicenza Virtus
1–6
Home

@ Albinoleffe
3–0
Away

vs Giana Erminio
2–0
Home

@ Pro Patria
1–1
Away

vs Virtus Verona
5–0
Home

@ Trento
2–2
Away

vs PRO Vercelli
2–3
Home

@ Union Brescia
0–0
Away

vs Dolomiti Bellunesi
2–3
Home

@ Pergolettese
2–0
Away

vs Cittadella
2–3
Home

vs Novara
0–1
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Triestina
1.21
xG
Mestre
0.9
xG
Most likely scores
1.21
Triestina avg
0.89
Mestre avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
12.3%
0
26%
1
26.8%
2
18.6%
3
10.1%
4
4.3%
5
2%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Campodarsego
1–1
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