Published model
Cjarlins Muzane
71%
Draw
19%
Virtus Bolzano
10%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
85/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
99%
Core completeness
99%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Cjarlins Muzane
Last 5
Virtus Bolzano
5
Matches played
5
9
Goals scored
6
5
Goals conceded
16
+4
Goal difference
-10
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Virtus Bolzano win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Cjarlins Muzane
74%
Draw
16%
Virtus Bolzano
10%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Cjarlins Muzane
69%
Draw
21%
Virtus Bolzano
10%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Cjarlins Muzane
71%
Draw
19%
Virtus Bolzano
10%
Cjarlins Muzane
-3 pp
Draw
+3 pp
Virtus Bolzano
0 pp
Context evidence
76 → 70
27 → 21
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Cjarlins Muzane
Momentum score
20
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Virtus Bolzano
Momentum score
41
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Cjarlins Muzane
71%
Draw
19%
Virtus Bolzano
10%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 85Cjarlins Muzane
67%
Draw
23%
Virtus Bolzano
10%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Cjarlins Muzane
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
60.7
Recent 5 strength
66.9
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Virtus Bolzano
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
41.6
Recent 5 strength
38.4
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
10
Cjarlins Muzane +11.2 performance-index edge
Campodarsego
Brian Lignano
Este
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
40%
1.80
Average goals
1.20
1.00
Average conceded
3.20
Competition
Current season
Cjarlins Muzane
Season
Virtus Bolzano
#2
Position
#14
18
Points
9
8
Played
8
6W 0D 2L
Record
3W 0D 5L
+10
Goal difference
-15
84
League strength signal
27

@ Mestre
0–2
Away

vs Legnago Salus
0–4
Home

vs Brian Lignano
1–1
Home

@ LME
0–3
Away

vs Triestina
3–0
Home

@ Este
1–2
Away

vs Conegliano
0–1
Home

vs Campodarsego
4–1
Home

@ FC Obermais
2–5
Away

@ Campodarsego
4–1
Away

vs San Luigi
4–2
Home

@ Bassano Virtus
1–0
Away

vs FC Obermais
2–2
Home

@ Adriese
0–2
Away

vs Altavilla
0–0
Home

@ Portogruaro
1–2
Away

vs Treviso
1–1
Home

@ Vigasio
1–1
Away

vs Luparense
1–2
Home

@ Este
1–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Cjarlins Muzane
3
xG
Virtus Bolzano
0.99
xG
Most likely scores
3.03
Cjarlins Muzane avg
0.99
Virtus Bolzano avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
1.9%
0
7.4%
1
13.8%
2
19.9%
3
19.5%
4
15.3%
5
22.1%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ Altavilla
7–0
Away