Published model
Altavilla
20%
Draw
18%
Luparense
62%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
85/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
100%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Altavilla
Last 5
Luparense
5
Matches played
5
13
Goals scored
7
6
Goals conceded
1
+7
Goal difference
+6
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Luparense win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Altavilla
18%
Draw
15%
Luparense
67%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Altavilla
23%
Draw
20%
Luparense
57%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Altavilla
20%
Draw
18%
Luparense
62%
Altavilla
+2 pp
Draw
+3 pp
Luparense
-5 pp
Context evidence
54 → 56
77 → 72
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Altavilla
Momentum score
47
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Luparense
Momentum score
56
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Altavilla
20%
Draw
18%
Luparense
62%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 75Altavilla
23%
Draw
23%
Luparense
54%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Altavilla
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
50.9
Recent 5 strength
54.0
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Luparense
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
60.6
Recent 5 strength
73.8
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
11
Altavilla -13.7 performance-index edge
Brian Lignano
Mestre
Legnago Salus
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
60%
2.60
Average goals
1.40
1.20
Average conceded
0.20
Competition
Current season
Altavilla
Season
Luparense
#12
Position
#1
9
Points
18
8
Played
8
2W 3D 3L
Record
5W 3D 0L
+6
Goal difference
+12
41
League strength signal
87

@ Brian Lignano
0–2
Away

vs Clodiense
0–1
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@ Schio
2–2
Away

vs Virtus Bolzano
7–0
Home

@ Mestre
3–2
Away

vs Legnago Salus
2–3
Home

@ LME
0–0
Away

vs Triestina
1–1
Home

@ Conegliano
0–1
Away

vs Mestre
1–0
Home

@ FC Obermais
0–0
Away

vs San Luigi
1–0
Home

vs Treviso
0–1
Home

@ Cjarlins Muzane
0–0
Away

vs Legnago Salus
0–2
Home

@ Luparense
1–1
Away

vs Brian Lignano
0–1
Home

@ Clodiense
1–1
Away

vs Campodarsego
2–2
Home

@ Calvi Noale
1–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Altavilla
1.49
xG
Luparense
1.27
xG
Most likely scores
1.52
Altavilla avg
1.28
Luparense avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
6.1%
0
16.8%
1
23.6%
2
23%
3
15.7%
4
8.6%
5
6.2%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Clodiense
3–0
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