Published model
Real Calepina
24%
Draw
40%
Pavonese
36%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
56/100
Limited · confidence cap 64
20-match history
35%
Effective history
47%
Core completeness
99%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Real Calepina
Last 5
Pavonese
5
Matches played
5
5
Goals scored
7
9
Goals conceded
7
-4
Goal difference
0
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Pavonese win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Real Calepina
25%
Draw
40%
Pavonese
35%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Real Calepina
23%
Draw
40%
Pavonese
37%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Real Calepina
24%
Draw
40%
Pavonese
36%
Real Calepina
-1 pp
Draw
0 pp
Pavonese
+1 pp
Context evidence
47 → 44
51 → 46
Venue samples
5 / 4
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Real Calepina
Momentum score
41
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Pavonese
Momentum score
50
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
4/5
Reliability audit
• Fewer than 12 valid completed matches are available for at least one team.
• Friendlies or low-weight competitions reduce the effective 20-match sample.
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Real Calepina
24%
Draw
40%
Pavonese
36%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 56Real Calepina
25%
Draw
40%
Pavonese
35%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Real Calepina
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
44.9
Recent 5 strength
41.5
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Pavonese
7/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
50.8
Recent 5 strength
62.2
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
4
Real Calepina +39.2 performance-index edge
Leon
Club Milano
Chievo
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
60%
1.00
Average goals
1.40
1.80
Average conceded
1.40
Competition
Current season
Real Calepina
Season
Pavonese
#9
Position
#10
11
Points
10
8
Played
7
3W 2D 3L
Record
3W 1D 3L
0
Goal difference
-3
50
League strength signal
46

@ Club Milano
1–2
Away

vs Villa Valle
0–3
Home

vs Leon
0–2
Home

@ Rovato Vertovese
0–1
Away

vs Brusaporto
2–3
Home

@ Piacenza
3–1
Away

vs Caldiero Terme
2–2
Home

@ Scanzorosciate
0–0
Away

vs Pro Palazzolo
5–1
Home

vs Scanzorosciate
1–1
Home

@ Sondrio
5–1
Away

@ Folgore Caratese
1–1
Away

vs Breno
1–1
Home

vs Milan II
1–0
Home

@ Oltrepò
1–0
Away

@ Caldiero Terme
3–1
Away

vs Chievo
1–0
Home

@ Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
0–2
Away

vs Leon Monza e Brianza
1–2
Home

@ USD Casatese
1–0
Away

Last 20 completed matches

vs Fiorenzuola
2–1
Home

@ Leon
3–0
Away

@ Virtus Verona
0–1
Away

vs Tritium
3–2
Home

@ Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1–1
Away

vs Club Milano
0–2
Home

@ Chievo
1–0
Away
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Real Calepina
1.17
xG
Pavonese
1.5
xG
Most likely scores
1.19
Real Calepina avg
1.49
Pavonese avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
7%
0
18.4%
1
24.4%
2
22.3%
3
14.5%
4
8%
5
5.5%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions