Published model
Nibbiano & Valtidone
73%
Draw
13%
Virtus Verona
14%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
57/100
Limited · confidence cap 64
20-match history
40%
Effective history
53%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Nibbiano & Valtidone
Last 5
Virtus Verona
5
Matches played
5
8
Goals scored
4
2
Goals conceded
5
+6
Goal difference
-1
80%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.
Draw
Virtus Verona win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Nibbiano & Valtidone
71%
Draw
14%
Virtus Verona
15%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Nibbiano & Valtidone
75%
Draw
12%
Virtus Verona
13%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Nibbiano & Valtidone
73%
Draw
13%
Virtus Verona
14%
Nibbiano & Valtidone
+2 pp
Draw
-1 pp
Virtus Verona
-1 pp
Context evidence
78 → 80
50 → 49
Venue samples
4 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Nibbiano & Valtidone
Momentum score
32
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Virtus Verona
Momentum score
47
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
3/5
Reliability audit
• Fewer than 12 valid completed matches are available for at least one team.
• Friendlies or low-weight competitions reduce the effective 20-match sample.
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Nibbiano & Valtidone
73%
Draw
13%
Virtus Verona
14%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 64Nibbiano & Valtidone
74%
Draw
14%
Virtus Verona
12%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Nibbiano & Valtidone
8/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
76.7
Recent 5 strength
73.8
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Virtus Verona
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
42.5
Recent 5 strength
49.0
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
3
Nibbiano & Valtidone +42.5 performance-index edge
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Chievo
Club Milano
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
40%
1.60
Average goals
0.80
0.40
Average conceded
1.00
Competition
Current season
Nibbiano & Valtidone
Season
Virtus Verona
#1
Position
#8
21
Points
12
8
Played
8
7W 0D 1L
Record
3W 3D 2L
+9
Goal difference
0
91
League strength signal
54

@ Brusaporto
0–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Nibbiano & Valtidone
1.32
xG
Virtus Verona
0.49
xG
Most likely scores
1.31
Nibbiano & Valtidone avg
0.5
Virtus Verona avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
16.6%
0
29.4%
1
26.9%
2
15.7%
3
7.4%
4
2.8%
5
1.1%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Pavonese
0–1
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