Published model
Pavonese
25%
Draw
34%
Milan II
41%
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Wed, 21 Oct 2026 · 17:30
17:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
53/100
Limited · confidence cap 64
20-match history
35%
Effective history
47%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Pavonese
Last 5
Milan II
5
Matches played
5
7
Goals scored
7
7
Goals conceded
7
0
Goal difference
0
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.
Draw
Milan II win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Pavonese
25%
Draw
33%
Milan II
42%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Pavonese
26%
Draw
34%
Milan II
40%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Pavonese
25%
Draw
34%
Milan II
41%
Pavonese
0 pp
Draw
+1 pp
Milan II
-1 pp
Context evidence
51 → 51
60 → 59
Venue samples
3 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Pavonese
Momentum score
50
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Milan II
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
1/5
Reliability audit
• Fewer than 12 valid completed matches are available for at least one team.
• Friendlies or low-weight competitions reduce the effective 20-match sample.
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Pavonese
25%
Draw
34%
Milan II
41%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 63Pavonese
21%
Draw
31%
Milan II
48%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Pavonese
7/20
V3 research coverage
24/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
50.8
Recent 5 strength
62.2
Rest days
3.1
14-day fixtures
2
Milan II
19/20
V3 research coverage
24/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
61.4
Recent 5 strength
56.6
Rest days
3.1
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
1
Pavonese -36.7 performance-index edge
Chievo
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
60%
1.40
Average goals
1.40
1.40
Average conceded
1.40
Competition
Current season
Pavonese
Season
Milan II
#10
Position
#7
10
Points
12
7
Played
6
3W 1D 3L
Record
4W 0D 2L
-3
Goal difference
+1
46
League strength signal
65
2–1
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Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Pavonese
1.33
xG
Milan II
1.43
xG
Most likely scores
1.32
Pavonese avg
1.42
Milan II avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
6.3%
0
18.3%
1
24.1%
2
22%
3
14.8%
4
8.2%
5
6.5%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Brusaporto
2–1
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