Published model
Chievo
63%
Draw
27%
Fiorenzuola
10%
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Sat, 31 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
84/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
100%
Effective history
99%
Core completeness
99%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Chievo
Last 5
Fiorenzuola
5
Matches played
5
8
Goals scored
2
7
Goals conceded
4
+1
Goal difference
-2
20%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Fiorenzuola win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Chievo
62%
Draw
28%
Fiorenzuola
10%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Chievo
65%
Draw
25%
Fiorenzuola
10%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Chievo
63%
Draw
27%
Fiorenzuola
10%
Chievo
+1 pp
Draw
-1 pp
Fiorenzuola
0 pp
Context evidence
62 → 65
25 → 27
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Chievo
Momentum score
29
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Fiorenzuola
Momentum score
53
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
4/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Chievo
63%
Draw
27%
Fiorenzuola
10%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 82Chievo
64%
Draw
25%
Fiorenzuola
11%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Chievo
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
63.8
Recent 5 strength
39.5
Rest days
13.0
14-day fixtures
1
Fiorenzuola
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
34.6
Recent 5 strength
37.8
Rest days
13.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
4
Chievo +26.2 performance-index edge
Brusaporto
Nibbiano & Valtidone
Pavonese
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
0%
1.60
Average goals
0.40
1.40
Average conceded
0.80
Competition
Current season
Chievo
Season
Fiorenzuola
#2
Position
#17
16
Points
3
8
Played
8
5W 1D 2L
Record
0W 3D 5L
+7
Goal difference
-7
79
League strength signal
12

vs Milan II
1–2
Home

@ Virtus Verona
1–1
Away

@ Brusaporto
2–1
Away

vs Tritium
5–0
Home

@ Nibbiano & Valtidone
2–0
Away

vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
2–1
Home

vs Club Milano
2–0
Home

@ Rovato Vertovese
3–4
Away

vs Pavonese
1–0
Home

@ USD Casatese
2–3
Away

vs Milan II
2–1
Home

vs Pavia
2–1
Home

@ Leon Monza e Brianza
2–2
Away

vs Castellanzese
2–2
Home

@ Varesina
0–1
Away

vs Vogherese
4–1
Home

@ Brusaporto
0–1
Away

vs Villa Valle
3–1
Home

@ Real Calepina
1–0
Away

vs Sondrio
1–0
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Chievo
1.32
xG
Fiorenzuola
0.64
xG
Most likely scores
1.32
Chievo avg
0.65
Fiorenzuola avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
14.1%
0
27.4%
1
27.3%
2
17.3%
3
9.1%
4
3.2%
5
1.6%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Caldiero Terme
1–1
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