Published model
Tritium
10%
Draw
40%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
50%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
85/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
99%
Core completeness
99%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Tritium
Last 5
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
5
Matches played
5
3
Goals scored
7
11
Goals conceded
9
-8
Goal difference
-2
0%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Tritium
10%
Draw
40%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
50%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Tritium
11%
Draw
40%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
49%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Tritium
10%
Draw
40%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
50%
Tritium
0 pp
Draw
0 pp
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
0 pp
Context evidence
16 → 21
41 → 37
Venue samples
5 / 4
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Tritium
Momentum score
47
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Tritium
10%
Draw
40%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
50%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 67Tritium
10%
Draw
40%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
50%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Tritium
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
24.3
Recent 5 strength
27.3
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
46.8
Recent 5 strength
36.8
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
9
Tritium -28.6 performance-index edge
Villa Valle
Virtus Verona
Club Milano
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
20%
0.60
Average goals
1.40
2.20
Average conceded
1.80
Competition
Current season
Tritium
Season
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
#18
Position
#12
2
Points
9
8
Played
8
0W 2D 6L
Record
2W 3D 3L
-11
Goal difference
0
6
League strength signal
38

@ Virtus Verona
2–0
Away

vs Club Milano
0–1
Home

@ Villa Valle
1–1
Away

@ Chievo
5–0
Away

vs Rovato Vertovese
2–2
Home

@ Pavonese
3–2
Away

vs Villa Valle
1–1
Home

@ Brusaporto
2–1
Away

vs Piacenza
1–2
Home

vs Pro Palazzolo
2–4
Home

@ Club Milano
1–1
Away

vs Desenzano Calvina
0–2
Home

@ Caravaggio
3–2
Away

vs Arconatese
0–1
Home

vs Folgore Caratese
0–0
Home

@ Clivense
1–0
Away

vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
0–2
Home

@ USD Casatese
2–0
Away

vs Real Calepina
0–3
Home

@ Villa Valle
2–0
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Tritium
1.01
xG
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.78
xG
Most likely scores
1
Tritium avg
1.77
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
6.6%
0
17.4%
1
23.8%
2
21.8%
3
15.4%
4
8.6%
5
6.4%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Club Milano
1–1
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