Published model
Fiorenzuola
13%
Draw
40%
Rovato Vertovese
47%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
83/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
100%
Effective history
100%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Fiorenzuola
Last 5
Rovato Vertovese
5
Matches played
5
2
Goals scored
7
4
Goals conceded
7
-2
Goal difference
0
0%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Rovato Vertovese win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Fiorenzuola
12%
Draw
40%
Rovato Vertovese
48%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Fiorenzuola
14%
Draw
40%
Rovato Vertovese
46%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Fiorenzuola
13%
Draw
40%
Rovato Vertovese
47%
Fiorenzuola
+1 pp
Draw
0 pp
Rovato Vertovese
-1 pp
Context evidence
25 → 29
39 → 41
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Fiorenzuola
Momentum score
53
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Rovato Vertovese
Momentum score
56
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
3/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Fiorenzuola
13%
Draw
40%
Rovato Vertovese
47%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 60Fiorenzuola
15%
Draw
40%
Rovato Vertovese
45%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Fiorenzuola
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
34.6
Recent 5 strength
37.8
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Rovato Vertovese
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
47.7
Recent 5 strength
50.0
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
3
Fiorenzuola -24.0 performance-index edge
Scanzorosciate
Progresso
Cittadella Vis Modena
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
20%
0.40
Average goals
1.40
0.80
Average conceded
1.40
Competition
Current season
Fiorenzuola
Season
Rovato Vertovese
#17
Position
#15
3
Points
7
8
Played
8
0W 3D 5L
Record
1W 4D 3L
-7
Goal difference
-3
12
League strength signal
26

@ Pavonese
2–1
Away

vs Piacenza
0–0
Home

@ Villa Valle
0–0
Away

vs Caldiero Terme
1–1
Home

@ Brusaporto
1–0
Away

vs Pro Palazzolo
0–1
Home

@ Nibbiano & Valtidone
1–0
Away

vs Scanzorosciate
0–3
Home

@ Brusaporto
1–0
Away

vs Prato
3–0
Home

@ Tuttocuoio
0–0
Away

vs Lentigione
0–1
Home

@ Ravenna
3–0
Away

vs Sammaurese
1–0
Home

@ Progresso
1–2
Away

@ Corticella
2–1
Away

vs Cittadella Vis Modena
0–2
Home

@ Zenith Prato
3–0
Away

vs Tau Altopascio
0–2
Home

@ United Riccione
2–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Fiorenzuola
0.72
xG
Rovato Vertovese
1.08
xG
Most likely scores
0.72
Fiorenzuola avg
1.09
Rovato Vertovese avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
17%
0
29.3%
1
26.2%
2
16.2%
3
7.3%
4
2.8%
5
1.3%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ Tritium
2–2
Away