Published model
Millesimo
53%
Draw
22%
Sanremese
25%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
60/100
Medium · confidence cap 74
20-match history
45%
Effective history
57%
Core completeness
99%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Millesimo
Last 5
Sanremese
5
Matches played
5
11
Goals scored
11
7
Goals conceded
5
+4
Goal difference
+6
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.
Draw
Sanremese win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Millesimo
48%
Draw
25%
Sanremese
27%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Millesimo
59%
Draw
19%
Sanremese
22%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Millesimo
53%
Draw
22%
Sanremese
25%
Millesimo
+5 pp
Draw
-3 pp
Sanremese
-2 pp
Context evidence
67 → 73
57 → 55
Venue samples
4 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Millesimo
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Sanremese
Momentum score
65
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
4/5
Reliability audit
• Fewer than 12 valid completed matches are available for at least one team.
• Friendlies or low-weight competitions reduce the effective 20-match sample.
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Millesimo
53%
Draw
22%
Sanremese
25%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 69Millesimo
47%
Draw
24%
Sanremese
29%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Millesimo
9/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
58.1
Recent 5 strength
61.5
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Sanremese
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
60.9
Recent 5 strength
66.3
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
4
Millesimo +2.3 performance-index edge
Valenzana
Derthona
Imperia
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
60%
2.20
Average goals
2.20
1.40
Average conceded
1.00
Competition
Current season
Millesimo
Season
Sanremese
#3
Position
#6
15
Points
12
8
Played
8
5W 0D 3L
Record
3W 3D 2L
+9
Goal difference
+3
76
League strength signal
61

@ Fezzanese
0–4
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Millesimo
1.71
xG
Sanremese
1.54
xG
Most likely scores
1.73
Millesimo avg
1.55
Sanremese avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
3.9%
0
12%
1
20.3%
2
22.3%
3
18.3%
4
11.4%
5
11.8%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions