Published model
Fezzanese
11%
Draw
40%
Asti
49%
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Sun, 01 Nov 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
83/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
100%
Effective history
100%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
8/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Fezzanese
Last 5
Asti
5
Matches played
5
1
Goals scored
5
12
Goals conceded
6
-11
Goal difference
-1
0%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Asti win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Fezzanese
11%
Draw
40%
Asti
49%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Fezzanese
11%
Draw
40%
Asti
49%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Fezzanese
11%
Draw
40%
Asti
49%
Fezzanese
0 pp
Draw
0 pp
Asti
0 pp
Context evidence
22 → 24
45 → 46
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Fezzanese
Momentum score
50
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Asti
Momentum score
65
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Fezzanese
11%
Draw
40%
Asti
49%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 65Fezzanese
12%
Draw
40%
Asti
48%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Fezzanese
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
34.9
Recent 5 strength
12.0
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
0
Asti
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
52.6
Recent 5 strength
43.4
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
0
Common opponents
6
Fezzanese -34.1 performance-index edge
Millesimo
Alessandria
Valenzana
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
20%
0.20
Average goals
1.00
2.40
Average conceded
1.20
Competition
Current season
Fezzanese
Season
Asti
#16
Position
#9
7
Points
11
8
Played
8
2W 1D 5L
Record
3W 2D 3L
-6
Goal difference
0
22
League strength signal
50

vs Millesimo
0–4
Home

@ Alessandria
2–0
Away

vs Valenzana
1–2
Home

@ Imperia
2–0
Away

vs Gozzano
0–2
Home

@ Sestri Levante
0–3
Away

vs Chisola
2–0
Home

@ Bra
1–1
Away

vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
3–3
Home

@ Orvietana Calcio
3–0
Away

vs FC Siena
4–2
Home

@ San Donato Tavarnelle
4–1
Away

vs Montevarchi Calcio
1–3
Home

@ Grosseto
2–0
Away

vs Ostia Mare
0–1
Home

vs Sporting Trestina
1–1
Home

@ Flaminia
1–2
Away

vs Fulgens Foligno
0–0
Home

@ Gavorrano
1–1
Away

vs Sangiovannese
2–2
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Fezzanese
0.55
xG
Asti
1.57
xG
Most likely scores
0.54
Fezzanese avg
1.59
Asti avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
11.7%
0
25.4%
1
27%
2
19.2%
3
10.2%
4
4.2%
5
2.2%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ Alessandria
2–0
Away