Published model
Borgosesia
11%
Draw
15%
Alessandria
74%
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Sun, 01 Nov 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
83/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
100%
Effective history
99%
Core completeness
99%
Freshness
8/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Borgosesia
Last 5
Alessandria
5
Matches played
5
8
Goals scored
11
9
Goals conceded
6
-1
Goal difference
+5
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Alessandria win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Borgosesia
10%
Draw
13%
Alessandria
77%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Borgosesia
13%
Draw
16%
Alessandria
71%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Borgosesia
11%
Draw
15%
Alessandria
74%
Borgosesia
+1 pp
Draw
+2 pp
Alessandria
-3 pp
Context evidence
42 → 43
80 → 74
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Borgosesia
Momentum score
32
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Alessandria
Momentum score
32
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Borgosesia
11%
Draw
15%
Alessandria
74%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 82Borgosesia
12%
Draw
20%
Alessandria
68%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Borgosesia
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
39.3
Recent 5 strength
50.0
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
0
Alessandria
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
52.6
Recent 5 strength
74.8
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
0
Common opponents
5
Borgosesia -17.1 performance-index edge
Imperia
Millesimo
Sestri Levante
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
80%
1.60
Average goals
2.20
1.80
Average conceded
1.20
Competition
Current season
Borgosesia
Season
Alessandria
#14
Position
#1
9
Points
21
8
Played
8
2W 3D 3L
Record
7W 0D 1L
-3
Goal difference
+7
32
League strength signal
90

vs Imperia
4–2
Home

@ Millesimo
3–0
Away

vs Sestri Levante
0–1
Home

@ Chisola
2–2
Away

@ Valenzana
1–2
Away

vs Bra
1–1
Home

@ Gozzano
0–0
Away

vs Saluzzo
0–2
Home

vs Chieri
1–0
Home

@ Vado
4–0
Away

@ Alcione
3–0
Away

vs Lavagnese
2–1
Home

@ Bra
1–0
Away

vs Gozzano
0–2
Home

@ Vogherese
1–0
Away

vs Derthona
1–1
Home

@ Chisola
4–1
Away

@ Pinerolo
3–2
Away

vs PDHAE
0–0
Home

vs Alba Calcio
2–4
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Borgosesia
1.35
xG
Alessandria
2.18
xG
Most likely scores
1.35
Borgosesia avg
2.16
Alessandria avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
2.9%
0
10.7%
1
18.7%
2
21.4%
3
18.4%
4
13.5%
5
14.3%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ Derthona
1–3
Away