Published model
Imperia
49%
Draw
39%
Celle Varazze
12%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
81/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
95%
Effective history
97%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
8/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Imperia
Last 5
Celle Varazze
5
Matches played
5
8
Goals scored
2
8
Goals conceded
12
0
Goal difference
-10
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Celle Varazze win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Imperia
47%
Draw
40%
Celle Varazze
13%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Imperia
51%
Draw
39%
Celle Varazze
10%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Imperia
49%
Draw
39%
Celle Varazze
12%
Imperia
+2 pp
Draw
-1 pp
Celle Varazze
-1 pp
Context evidence
48 → 52
18 → 20
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Imperia
Momentum score
47
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Celle Varazze
Momentum score
56
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Imperia
49%
Draw
39%
Celle Varazze
12%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58Imperia
44%
Draw
40%
Celle Varazze
16%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Imperia
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
45.8
Recent 5 strength
51.0
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Celle Varazze
19/20
V3 research coverage
6/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
41.3
Recent 5 strength
19.6
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
0
Common opponents
8
Imperia +17.2 performance-index edge
Derthona
Biellese
Asti
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
0%
1.60
Average goals
0.40
1.60
Average conceded
2.40
Competition
Current season
Imperia
Season
Celle Varazze
#10
Position
#18
11
Points
1
8
Played
7
3W 2D 3L
Record
0W 1D 6L
0
Goal difference
-12
47
League strength signal
10

@ Borgosesia
4–2
Away

vs Biellese
2–1
Home

@ Lascaris
1–1
Away

@ Alessandria
2–1
Away

vs Fezzanese
2–0
Home

vs Asti
1–2
Home

@ Derthona
1–1
Away

vs Millesimo
1–0
Home

@ Pro Patria
2–1
Away

vs Celle Varazze
0–1
Home

@ Derthona
0–0
Away

vs Sanremese
2–2
Home

@ NovaRomentin
1–2
Away

vs Asti
2–2
Home

@ Cairese
2–0
Away

vs Biellese
0–1
Home

@ Lavagnese
2–1
Away

vs Chisola
1–1
Home

@ Gozzano
0–0
Away

vs Valenzana
2–0
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Imperia
2
xG
Celle Varazze
0.75
xG
Most likely scores
2.01
Imperia avg
0.74
Celle Varazze avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
6.1%
0
17.5%
1
24.5%
2
22.4%
3
15.3%
4
8.1%
5
6.2%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Ligorna
0–2
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