Published model
Foggia
21%
Draw
37%
Cavese
42%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
83/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
100%
Effective history
99%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
8/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Foggia
Last 5
Cavese
5
Matches played
5
7
Goals scored
14
6
Goals conceded
9
+1
Goal difference
+5
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Cavese win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Foggia
21%
Draw
34%
Cavese
45%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Foggia
22%
Draw
40%
Cavese
38%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Foggia
21%
Draw
37%
Cavese
42%
Foggia
0 pp
Draw
+3 pp
Cavese
-3 pp
Context evidence
45 → 45
59 → 54
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Foggia
Momentum score
77
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Cavese
Momentum score
65
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Foggia
21%
Draw
37%
Cavese
42%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58Foggia
20%
Draw
39%
Cavese
41%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Foggia
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
39.9
Recent 5 strength
51.0
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
0
Cavese
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
52.7
Recent 5 strength
66.2
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
9
Foggia -15.8 performance-index edge
Potenza
Cosenza
Savoia
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
60%
1.40
Average goals
2.80
1.20
Average conceded
1.80
Competition
Current season
Foggia
Season
Cavese
#13
Position
#7
11
Points
15
9
Played
10
3W 2D 4L
Record
4W 3D 3L
-1
Goal difference
+3
40
League strength signal
59

vs Potenza
1–3
Home

@ Cosenza
0–2
Away

vs Sorrento
2–0
Home

@ Inter U23
3–2
Away

vs Savoia
0–0
Home

@ SS Monopoli
1–0
Away

vs Audace Cerignola
0–2
Home

vs Salernitana
1–1
Home

@ Crotone
0–1
Away

vs Team Altamura
1–2
Home

vs Salernitana
1–3
Home

@ SS Monopoli
1–0
Away

vs Siracusa
1–1
Home

@ Cosenza
1–0
Away

vs Trapani 1905
1–0
Home

@ Cavese
0–0
Away

@ Benevento
1–0
Away

vs Potenza
0–1
Home

@ Team Altamura
1–0
Away

vs Casarano
1–2
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Foggia
1.52
xG
Cavese
2.12
xG
Most likely scores
1.51
Foggia avg
2.11
Cavese avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
3%
0
10.1%
1
17.4%
2
20.3%
3
19.3%
4
13.5%
5
16.4%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Savoia
4–2
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