Published model
Crotone
16%
Draw
40%
Casarano
44%
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Mon, 26 Oct 2026 · 20:30
20:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
85/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
99%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Crotone
Last 5
Casarano
5
Matches played
5
7
Goals scored
3
8
Goals conceded
9
-1
Goal difference
-6
20%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Casarano win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Crotone
15%
Draw
40%
Casarano
45%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Crotone
17%
Draw
40%
Casarano
43%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Crotone
16%
Draw
40%
Casarano
44%
Crotone
+1 pp
Draw
0 pp
Casarano
-1 pp
Context evidence
31 → 32
30 → 28
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Crotone
Momentum score
20
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Casarano
Momentum score
47
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Crotone
16%
Draw
40%
Casarano
44%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58Crotone
18%
Draw
40%
Casarano
42%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Crotone
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
40.5
Recent 5 strength
44.4
Rest days
8.3
14-day fixtures
1
Casarano
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
45.0
Recent 5 strength
28.2
Rest days
8.3
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
10
Crotone -10.0 performance-index edge
Bari
Salernitana
SS Monopoli
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
0%
1.40
Average goals
0.60
1.60
Average conceded
1.80
Competition
Current season
Crotone
Season
Casarano
#20
Position
#15
1
Points
11
10
Played
10
1W 4D 5L
Record
3W 2D 5L
-5
Goal difference
-6
7
League strength signal
32

@ Bari
0–0
Away

vs Audace Cerignola
2–3
Home

@ Catania
2–1
Away

vs Salernitana
2–1
Home

@ SS Monopoli
2–2
Away

vs Inter U23
0–2
Home

@ Savoia
1–1
Away

vs Barletta
2–2
Home

@ Sorrento
1–0
Away

vs Foggia
0–1
Home

vs Cosenza
0–2
Home

@ Casertana
1–1
Away

vs Audace Cerignola
1–1
Home

vs Latina
2–5
Home

@ Casarano
1–2
Away

vs Catania
2–0
Home

@ Giugliano
1–0
Away

vs Audace Cerignola
3–1
Home

@ Sorrento
2–2
Away

vs Salernitana
0–1
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Crotone
1.59
xG
Casarano
0.99
xG
Most likely scores
1.6
Crotone avg
1
Casarano avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
7.6%
0
18.9%
1
24.9%
2
22.1%
3
14.3%
4
7.4%
5
4.7%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs SS Monopoli
0–1
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