Published model
Catania
62%
Draw
27%
Giugliano
11%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 15:00
15:00
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
85/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
97%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Catania
Last 5
Giugliano
5
Matches played
5
8
Goals scored
6
4
Goals conceded
9
+4
Goal difference
-3
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Giugliano win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Catania
63%
Draw
26%
Giugliano
11%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Catania
61%
Draw
29%
Giugliano
10%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Catania
62%
Draw
27%
Giugliano
11%
Catania
-1 pp
Draw
+1 pp
Giugliano
0 pp
Context evidence
63 → 61
32 → 26
Venue samples
5 / 4
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Catania
Momentum score
50
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Giugliano
Momentum score
41
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Catania
62%
Draw
27%
Giugliano
11%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 75Catania
54%
Draw
33%
Giugliano
13%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Catania
20/20
V3 research coverage
6/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
50.4
Recent 5 strength
66.2
Rest days
7.9
14-day fixtures
1
Giugliano
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
39.8
Recent 5 strength
42.4
Rest days
12.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
9
Catania -10.5 performance-index edge
Barletta
Scafatese
Cosenza
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
40%
1.60
Average goals
1.20
0.80
Average conceded
1.80
Competition
Current season
Catania
Season
Giugliano
#5
Position
#18
16
Points
7
10
Played
9
5W 1D 4L
Record
2W 1D 6L
+6
Goal difference
-10
66
League strength signal
19

@ Potenza
2–1
Away

@ Team Altamura
0–3
Away

vs Crotone
2–1
Home

@ Casertana
1–2
Away

vs Barletta
0–0
Home

@ AZ Picerno
2–4
Away

vs Scafatese
1–2
Home

vs Cosenza
4–0
Home

vs Savoia
0–3
Home

@ SS Monopoli
2–0
Away

vs Inter U23
1–2
Home

@ Parma
2–0
Away

@ Vicenza Virtus
1–1
Away

vs Ascoli
2–1
Home

@ Ascoli
4–0
Away

vs Lecco
3–3
Home

@ Lecco
0–0
Away

@ Atalanta II
1–1
Away

vs Potenza
1–1
Home

@ Crotone
2–0
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Catania
1.93
xG
Giugliano
0.94
xG
Most likely scores
1.92
Catania avg
0.93
Giugliano avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
5.9%
0
16.6%
1
22.9%
2
22.6%
3
16.2%
4
8.8%
5
7.1%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ Salernitana
1–0
Away