Published model
Reggiana
60%
Draw
26%
Sambenedettese
14%
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Fri, 30 Oct 2026 · 20:30
20:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
83/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
95%
Effective history
96%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Reggiana
Last 5
Sambenedettese
5
Matches played
5
7
Goals scored
8
3
Goals conceded
7
+4
Goal difference
+1
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Sambenedettese win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Reggiana
62%
Draw
25%
Sambenedettese
13%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Reggiana
59%
Draw
26%
Sambenedettese
15%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Reggiana
60%
Draw
26%
Sambenedettese
14%
Reggiana
-2 pp
Draw
+1 pp
Sambenedettese
+1 pp
Context evidence
65 → 65
38 → 41
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Reggiana
Momentum score
14
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Sambenedettese
Momentum score
71
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Reggiana
60%
Draw
26%
Sambenedettese
14%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 75Reggiana
52%
Draw
31%
Sambenedettese
17%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Reggiana
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
52.8
Recent 5 strength
59.6
Rest days
13.3
14-day fixtures
1
Sambenedettese
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
44.2
Recent 5 strength
52.0
Rest days
13.3
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
6
Reggiana +20.0 performance-index edge
Latina
Torres
Spezia
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
20%
1.40
Average goals
1.60
0.60
Average conceded
1.40
Competition
Current season
Reggiana
Season
Sambenedettese
#4
Position
#18
17
Points
7
9
Played
10
5W 2D 2L
Record
1W 4D 5L
+7
Goal difference
-3
73
League strength signal
21

vs Torres
2–0
Home

vs Spezia
0–1
Home

@ Perugia
1–0
Away

vs Latina
1–0
Home

@ Vis Pesaro
1–4
Away

@ Guidonia Montecelio 1937
1–1
Away

vs Vado
3–1
Home

@ Gubbio
1–2
Away

vs Ravenna
1–1
Home

@ Livorno
3–1
Away

vs Sampdoria
1–0
Home

@ Modena
2–1
Away

vs Palermo
1–1
Home

@ Padova
1–0
Away

vs Carrarese
2–0
Home

vs Pescara
1–3
Home

@ Virtus Entella
3–0
Away

vs Monza
0–0
Home

@ Bari
4–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Reggiana
1.45
xG
Sambenedettese
1.07
xG
Most likely scores
1.45
Reggiana avg
1.07
Sambenedettese avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
8.2%
0
20.1%
1
25.5%
2
21.6%
3
13.5%
4
7%
5
4.2%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Campobasso FC
1–2
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