Published model
Vis Pesaro
10%
Draw
23%
Ravenna
67%
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Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 17:30
17:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
85/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
98%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Vis Pesaro
Last 5
Ravenna
5
Matches played
5
6
Goals scored
8
12
Goals conceded
4
-6
Goal difference
+4
20%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Ravenna win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Vis Pesaro
10%
Draw
22%
Ravenna
68%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Vis Pesaro
10%
Draw
25%
Ravenna
65%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Vis Pesaro
10%
Draw
23%
Ravenna
67%
Vis Pesaro
0 pp
Draw
+1 pp
Ravenna
-1 pp
Context evidence
24 → 27
68 → 65
Venue samples
5 / 4
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Vis Pesaro
Momentum score
68
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Ravenna
Momentum score
14
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Vis Pesaro
10%
Draw
23%
Ravenna
67%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 85Vis Pesaro
10%
Draw
24%
Ravenna
66%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Vis Pesaro
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
28.8
Recent 5 strength
27.2
Rest days
6.2
14-day fixtures
1
Ravenna
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
61.4
Recent 5 strength
59.6
Rest days
6.1
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
9
Vis Pesaro -42.8 performance-index edge
Spezia
Latina
Ostia Mare
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
60%
1.20
Average goals
1.60
2.40
Average conceded
0.80
Competition
Current season
Vis Pesaro
Season
Ravenna
#20
Position
#2
4
Points
20
9
Played
10
1W 1D 7L
Record
6W 2D 2L
-10
Goal difference
+10
10
League strength signal
80

@ Latina
1–0
Away

vs Grosseto
2–3
Home

vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937
2–1
Home

@ Spezia
3–1
Away

vs Reggiana
1–4
Home

@ Forli
2–1
Away

vs Ostia Mare
1–2
Home

@ Gubbio
5–0
Away

vs Perugia
2–2
Home

@ Pescara
2–0
Away

@ Perugia
1–2
Away

@ Modena
0–0
Away

@ Cesena
3–0
Away

vs Benevento
1–2
Home

@ Venezia
8–0
Away

@ Juventus U23
2–2
Away

vs Sambenedettese
2–3
Home

@ Ravenna
1–0
Away

vs Athletic Carpi
3–0
Home

@ Ascoli
2–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Vis Pesaro
0.89
xG
Ravenna
2.11
xG
Most likely scores
0.9
Vis Pesaro avg
2.09
Ravenna avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
5.1%
0
14.4%
1
22.8%
2
22.8%
3
16.6%
4
9.7%
5
8.5%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Gubbio
2–0
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