Published model
Spezia
78%
Draw
12%
Latina
10%
Help improve Navurex
Optional first-party analytics help measure match usage, sign-up funnels and product performance. No advertising pixels or profiling. See the Cookie Policy.
Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
83/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
95%
Effective history
95%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Spezia
Last 5
Latina
5
Matches played
5
9
Goals scored
5
2
Goals conceded
3
+7
Goal difference
+2
100%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Latina win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Spezia
78%
Draw
12%
Latina
10%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Spezia
78%
Draw
12%
Latina
10%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Spezia
78%
Draw
12%
Latina
10%
Spezia
0 pp
Draw
0 pp
Latina
0 pp
Context evidence
86 → 86
51 → 48
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Spezia
Momentum score
50
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Latina
Momentum score
83
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Spezia
78%
Draw
12%
Latina
10%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 82Spezia
76%
Draw
12%
Latina
12%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Spezia
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
72.5
Recent 5 strength
86.0
Rest days
6.0
14-day fixtures
2
Latina
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
53.7
Recent 5 strength
57.6
Rest days
6.1
14-day fixtures
3
Common opponents
6
Spezia +37.0 performance-index edge
Reggiana
Vis Pesaro
Ravenna
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
40%
1.80
Average goals
1.00
0.40
Average conceded
0.60
Competition
Current season
Spezia
Season
Latina
#1
Position
#10
28
Points
13
10
Played
10
9W 1D 0L
Record
3W 4D 3L
+14
Goal difference
0
94
League strength signal
49

@ Ravenna
0–1
Away

vs Gubbio
2–0
Home

@ Reggiana
0–1
Away

@ Pescara
1–2
Away

vs Vis Pesaro
3–1
Home

@ Perugia
0–3
Away

vs Livorno
2–0
Home

@ Sambenedettese
1–2
Away

vs Vado
3–0
Home

vs Campobasso FC
1–0
Home

@ Grosseto
1–1
Away

vs Torres
4–1
Home

@ Empoli
1–1
Away

@ Pescara
1–1
Away

vs Venezia
2–2
Home

@ Catanzaro
4–2
Away

vs Sudtirol
6–1
Home

vs Mantova
0–2
Home

@ Carrarese
3–1
Away

@ Juve Stabia
3–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Spezia
1.31
xG
Latina
0.6
xG
Most likely scores
1.31
Spezia avg
0.6
Latina avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
14.5%
0
28.1%
1
27.1%
2
17.7%
3
8.5%
4
2.8%
5
1.2%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions