Published model
Sambenedettese
18%
Draw
40%
Livorno
42%
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Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 14:30
14:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
85/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
98%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Sambenedettese
Last 5
Livorno
5
Matches played
5
8
Goals scored
9
7
Goals conceded
9
+1
Goal difference
0
20%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Livorno win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Sambenedettese
18%
Draw
40%
Livorno
42%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Sambenedettese
18%
Draw
40%
Livorno
42%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Sambenedettese
18%
Draw
40%
Livorno
42%
Sambenedettese
0 pp
Draw
0 pp
Livorno
0 pp
Context evidence
38 → 37
51 → 50
Venue samples
4 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Sambenedettese
Momentum score
71
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Livorno
Momentum score
26
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Sambenedettese
18%
Draw
40%
Livorno
42%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58Sambenedettese
19%
Draw
40%
Livorno
41%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Sambenedettese
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
44.2
Recent 5 strength
52.0
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
2
Livorno
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
55.0
Recent 5 strength
50.0
Rest days
7.8
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
11
Sambenedettese -8.2 performance-index edge
Grosseto
Pianese
Vado
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
20%
1.60
Average goals
1.80
1.40
Average conceded
1.80
Competition
Current season
Sambenedettese
Season
Livorno
#18
Position
#6
7
Points
16
10
Played
10
1W 4D 5L
Record
4W 4D 2L
-3
Goal difference
+1
21
League strength signal
62

@ Vado
2–2
Away

vs Latina
1–1
Home

@ Grosseto
1–3
Away

vs Campobasso FC
1–2
Home

@ Pianese
1–1
Away

vs Atalanta II
2–3
Home

@ Pineto
2–1
Away

vs Spezia
1–2
Home

@ Team Altamura
2–2
Away

@ Torres
1–0
Away

vs Forli
2–2
Home

@ Pescara
0–1
Away

@ Frosinone
1–1
Away

vs Avellino
0–5
Home

@ Vis Pesaro
2–3
Away

vs Pontedera
2–1
Home

vs Arezzo
0–0
Home

@ Pineto
0–0
Away

@ Ternana
1–1
Away

vs Campobasso FC
0–1
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Sambenedettese
1.61
xG
Livorno
1.66
xG
Most likely scores
1.63
Sambenedettese avg
1.64
Livorno avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
3.9%
0
12.2%
1
20.1%
2
22.4%
3
18.1%
4
11.6%
5
11.6%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs Pianese
3–2
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