Published model
Ospitaletto
54%
Draw
26%
Pergolettese
20%
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Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 17:30
17:30
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
100/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
99%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Ospitaletto
Last 5
Pergolettese
5
Matches played
5
6
Goals scored
4
4
Goals conceded
3
+2
Goal difference
+1
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Pergolettese win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Ospitaletto
54%
Draw
27%
Pergolettese
19%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Ospitaletto
55%
Draw
25%
Pergolettese
20%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Ospitaletto
54%
Draw
26%
Pergolettese
20%
Ospitaletto
0 pp
Draw
-1 pp
Pergolettese
+1 pp
Context evidence
65 → 67
47 → 49
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Ospitaletto
Momentum score
83
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Pergolettese
Momentum score
62
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Published model
Ospitaletto
54%
Draw
26%
Pergolettese
20%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 75Ospitaletto
50%
Draw
28%
Pergolettese
22%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Ospitaletto
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
59.8
Recent 5 strength
58.6
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Pergolettese
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
50.6
Recent 5 strength
56.6
Rest days
8.1
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
11
Ospitaletto +8.5 performance-index edge
Novara
Athletic Carpi
Trento
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
50.6 / 27.9 / 21.5
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 0.6 pp
Market quality High · 0.7 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
20%
1.20
Average goals
0.80
0.80
Average conceded
0.60
Competition
Current season
Ospitaletto
Season
Pergolettese
#3
Position
#12
18
Points
11
9
Played
9
5W 3D 1L
Record
2W 5D 2L
+9
Goal difference
-1
78
League strength signal
42

@ Treviso
0–1
Away

vs Renate
1–1
Home

@ Novara
0–2
Away

vs Cittadella
0–1
Home

@ Athletic Carpi
2–2
Away

vs Juventus U23
3–0
Home

vs Arzignano Valchiampo
3–1
Home

@ Albinoleffe
1–1
Away

vs Lumezzane
2–0
Home

@ Trento
2–1
Away

@ Rovato Vertovese
2–2
Away

@ Padova
1–3
Away

vs Novara
0–2
Home

@ PRO Vercelli
1–0
Away

vs Albinoleffe
3–0
Home

@ Virtus Verona
0–0
Away

vs Giana Erminio
3–2
Home

@ Union Brescia
0–0
Away

vs Trento
3–2
Home

@ Dolomiti Bellunesi
4–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Ospitaletto
0.86
xG
Pergolettese
0.62
xG
Most likely scores
0.86
Ospitaletto avg
0.62
Pergolettese avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
22.7%
0
34%
1
24.6%
2
12.7%
3
4.4%
4
1.2%
5
0.5%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions