Published model
Cittadella
55%
Draw
15%
Arzignano Valchiampo
30%
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Mon, 19 Oct 2026 · 20:30
20:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
100/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
98%
Core completeness
100%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Cittadella
Last 5
Arzignano Valchiampo
5
Matches played
5
9
Goals scored
11
2
Goals conceded
5
+7
Goal difference
+6
80%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Arzignano Valchiampo win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Cittadella
56%
Draw
14%
Arzignano Valchiampo
30%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Cittadella
55%
Draw
15%
Arzignano Valchiampo
30%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Cittadella
55%
Draw
15%
Arzignano Valchiampo
30%
Cittadella
-1 pp
Draw
+1 pp
Arzignano Valchiampo
0 pp
Context evidence
80 → 78
69 → 67
Venue samples
5 / 4
Opponent coverage
100%
Momentum
Cittadella
Momentum score
32
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
Arzignano Valchiampo
Momentum score
38
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Published model
Cittadella
55%
Draw
15%
Arzignano Valchiampo
30%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 75Cittadella
53%
Draw
20%
Arzignano Valchiampo
27%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Cittadella
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
69.6
Recent 5 strength
73.8
Rest days
9.1
14-day fixtures
1
Arzignano Valchiampo
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
66.2
Recent 5 strength
78.4
Rest days
9.1
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
7
Cittadella +11.8 performance-index edge
Renate
Albinoleffe
Lecco
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
57.4 / 24.8 / 17.8
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 13.2 pp
Market quality High · 0.3 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
80%
1.80
Average goals
2.20
0.40
Average conceded
1.00
Competition
Current season
Cittadella
Season
Arzignano Valchiampo
#1
Position
#4
24
Points
17
9
Played
9
8W 0D 1L
Record
5W 2D 2L
+12
Goal difference
+4
92
League strength signal
72

@ Novara
0–2
Away

vs Albinoleffe
1–2
Home

vs Lecco
3–0
Home

@ Ospitaletto
0–1
Away

vs Juventus U23
2–0
Home

@ Athletic Carpi
1–2
Away

vs Lumezzane
2–1
Home

vs Renate
4–1
Home

@ Renate
0–1
Away

vs Pergolettese
2–0
Home

vs Atalanta II
2–2
Home

vs Luparense
1–0
Home

vs Padova
0–2
Home

@ Cremonese
1–1
Away

@ Torino
0–1
Away

@ Ravenna
1–1
Away

vs Ravenna
2–2
Home

vs Lumezzane
1–0
Home

vs Arzignano Valchiampo
2–2
Home

vs Giana Erminio
0–2
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Cittadella
1.47
xG
Arzignano Valchiampo
1.28
xG
Most likely scores
1.48
Cittadella avg
1.28
Arzignano Valchiampo avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
6.5%
0
17.4%
1
23.9%
2
22.2%
3
15.6%
4
8.4%
5
5.9%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions