Published model
Liverpool W
12%
Draw
15%
London City Lionesses W
73%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 15:00
15:00
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
93/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
95%
Core completeness
94%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
10/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Liverpool W
Last 5
London City Lionesses W
5
Matches played
5
11
Goals scored
13
8
Goals conceded
2
+3
Goal difference
+11
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
London City Lionesses W win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Liverpool W
12%
Draw
17%
London City Lionesses W
71%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Liverpool W
13%
Draw
13%
London City Lionesses W
74%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Liverpool W
12%
Draw
15%
London City Lionesses W
73%
Liverpool W
0 pp
Draw
-2 pp
London City Lionesses W
+2 pp
Context evidence
41 → 47
73 → 78
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
70%
Momentum
Liverpool W
Momentum score
14
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
London City Lionesses W
Momentum score
50
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Published model
Liverpool W
12%
Draw
15%
London City Lionesses W
73%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 85Liverpool W
19%
Draw
20%
London City Lionesses W
61%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Liverpool W
20/20
V3 research coverage
12/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
50.2
Recent 5 strength
57.6
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
London City Lionesses W
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
64.9
Recent 5 strength
88.0
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
12
Liverpool W -17.3 performance-index edge
Everton W
Brighton W
Manchester United W
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
26.8 / 26.4 / 46.9
4 bookmakers · Market disagreement 18.1 pp
Market quality Medium · 0.3 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 25%
William Hill · Marathonbet · Pinnacle · 1xBet
Win rate
100%
2.20
Average goals
2.60
1.60
Average conceded
0.40
Competition
Current season
Liverpool W
Season
London City Lionesses W
#7
Position
#3
7
Points
15
6
Played
6
2W 1D 3L
Record
5W 0D 1L
+2
Goal difference
+11
41
League strength signal
76

@ Aston Villa W
2–1
Away

@ Manchester United W
1–0
Away

@ Birmingham City W
3–4
Away

vs Everton W
2–0
Home

vs Sunderland W
4–2
Home

@ Manchester City W
4–2
Away

vs Tottenham Hotspur W
1–1
Home

@ Charlton Athletic W
0–4
Away

vs Arsenal W
1–3
Home

vs Brighton W
2–3
Home

@ Manchester City W
1–0
Away

vs West Ham W
0–1
Home

@ Charlton Athletic W
0–1
Away

@ Everton W
2–3
Away

@ Brighton W
0–0
Away

vs Leicester City FC W
2–0
Home

vs Everton W
2–1
Home

@ Chelsea W
2–0
Away

vs Aston Villa W
4–1
Home

@ Manchester United W
3–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Liverpool W
1.32
xG
London City Lionesses W
2.48
xG
Most likely scores
1.32
Liverpool W avg
2.48
London City Lionesses W avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
2.4%
0
8.2%
1
16.4%
2
20.4%
3
19.5%
4
14.6%
5
18.5%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions