Published model
Sagan Tosu
14%
Draw
24%
Omiya Ardija
62%
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Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 07:00
07:00
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
0/100
Experimental · confidence cap 56
20-match history
0%
Effective history
0%
Core completeness
0%
Freshness
0/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Sagan Tosu
Unavailable
Omiya Ardija
—
Matches played
—
—
Goals scored
—
—
Goals conceded
—
—
Goal difference
—
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Omiya Ardija win
Saved V2 transparency
This page is showing the exact stored pre-match prediction. Navurex does not reconstruct missing V2 diagnostics after kickoff, so later match information cannot leak into the historical comparison.
V1 baseline
Saved before kickoff
Sagan Tosu
11%
Draw
21%
Omiya Ardija
68%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Sagan Tosu
17%
Draw
28%
Omiya Ardija
55%
Saved V2 blend
Before news adjustment
Sagan Tosu
14%
Draw
24%
Omiya Ardija
62%
Saved final pre-match
Final stored probability
Sagan Tosu
14%
Draw
24%
Omiya Ardija
62%
Momentum
Sagan Tosu
Momentum score
50
Not enough completed matches to identify a trend.
Omiya Ardija
Momentum score
50
Not enough completed matches to identify a trend.
0/5
Reliability audit
• Fewer than 12 valid completed matches are available for at least one team.
• Friendlies or low-weight competitions reduce the effective 20-match sample.
• Recent-match history is stale for at least one team.
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Sagan Tosu
14%
Draw
24%
Omiya Ardija
62%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 42Sagan Tosu
28%
Draw
40%
Omiya Ardija
32%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Sagan Tosu
0/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
—
Recent 5 strength
—
Rest days
—
14-day fixtures
0
Omiya Ardija
0/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
—
Recent 5 strength
—
Rest days
—
14-day fixtures
0
Common opponents
0
No shared opponent evidence in the 20-match window.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
—
Win rate
—
—
Average goals
—
—
Average conceded
—
Competition
Pre-season / opening context
Saved simulation
The simulation details below were stored before kickoff and are not recalculated using information from after the match started.
Sagan Tosu xG
1.01
Likely score
0–1
Omiya Ardija xG
1.80
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions