Published model
Werder Bremen W
34%
Draw
37%
SC Freiburg W
29%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 14:00
14:00
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
82/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
100%
Effective history
98%
Core completeness
97%
Freshness
8/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Werder Bremen W
Last 5
SC Freiburg W
5
Matches played
5
7
Goals scored
8
7
Goals conceded
7
0
Goal difference
+1
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
SC Freiburg W win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Werder Bremen W
30%
Draw
40%
SC Freiburg W
30%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Werder Bremen W
39%
Draw
34%
SC Freiburg W
27%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Werder Bremen W
34%
Draw
37%
SC Freiburg W
29%
Werder Bremen W
+4 pp
Draw
-3 pp
SC Freiburg W
-1 pp
Context evidence
53 → 59
52 → 53
Venue samples
4 / 5
Opponent coverage
80%
Momentum
Werder Bremen W
Momentum score
47
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
SC Freiburg W
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Werder Bremen W
34%
Draw
37%
SC Freiburg W
29%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58Werder Bremen W
35%
Draw
38%
SC Freiburg W
27%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Werder Bremen W
20/20
V3 research coverage
6/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
54.9
Recent 5 strength
49.7
Rest days
22.9
14-day fixtures
0
SC Freiburg W
20/20
V3 research coverage
6/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
49.7
Recent 5 strength
56.5
Rest days
22.0
14-day fixtures
0
Common opponents
13
Werder Bremen W +7.1 performance-index edge
Bayer Leverkusen W
Hamburger SV W
VfL Wolfsburg W
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
60%
1.40
Average goals
1.60
1.40
Average conceded
1.40
Competition
Current season
Werder Bremen W
Season
SC Freiburg W
#5
Position
#6
10
Points
10
6
Played
6
3W 1D 2L
Record
3W 1D 2L
+2
Goal difference
+1
61
League strength signal
55

@ Bayer Leverkusen W
3–2
Away

@ Bochum W
0–1
Away

vs Stuttgart W
1–1
Home

vs Hamburger SV W
1–0
Home

@ VfL Wolfsburg W
3–2
Away

vs RB Leipzig W
2–0
Home

@ Mainz 05 W
1–2
Away

@ Bayer Leverkusen W
1–3
Away

vs Carl Zeiss Jena W
7–0
Home

@ FC Koln W
3–0
Away

vs Bayern Munich W
0–2
Home

@ RB Leipzig W
1–1
Away

vs VfL Wolfsburg W
0–0
Home

vs SGS Essen W
2–1
Home

@ Union Berlin W
4–1
Away

vs Eintracht Frankfurt W
4–2
Home

@ SGS Essen W
1–0
Away

@ Hamburger SV W
1–1
Away

@ 1899 Hoffenheim W
0–0
Away

vs Nürnberg W
1–1
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Werder Bremen W
1.43
xG
SC Freiburg W
1.44
xG
Most likely scores
1.45
Werder Bremen W avg
1.44
SC Freiburg W avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
5.2%
0
16%
1
23.3%
2
22.9%
3
16.5%
4
9.3%
5
6.9%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions