Published model
Mainz 05 W
10%
Draw
14%
VfL Wolfsburg W
76%
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Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 18:30
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Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
95/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
100%
Effective history
94%
Core completeness
92%
Freshness
8/10
Market evidence
15/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Mainz 05 W
Last 5
VfL Wolfsburg W
5
Matches played
5
8
Goals scored
17
16
Goals conceded
4
-8
Goal difference
+13
20%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
VfL Wolfsburg W win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Mainz 05 W
10%
Draw
14%
VfL Wolfsburg W
76%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Mainz 05 W
10%
Draw
14%
VfL Wolfsburg W
76%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Mainz 05 W
10%
Draw
14%
VfL Wolfsburg W
76%
Mainz 05 W
0 pp
Draw
0 pp
VfL Wolfsburg W
0 pp
Context evidence
4 → 10
79 → 80
Venue samples
4 / 5
Opponent coverage
60%
Momentum
Mainz 05 W
Momentum score
68
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
VfL Wolfsburg W
Momentum score
77
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Published model
Mainz 05 W
10%
Draw
14%
VfL Wolfsburg W
76%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 85Mainz 05 W
8%
Draw
12%
VfL Wolfsburg W
80%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Mainz 05 W
20/20
V3 research coverage
6/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
52.7
Recent 5 strength
24.6
Rest days
15.2
14-day fixtures
0
VfL Wolfsburg W
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
65.9
Recent 5 strength
73.8
Rest days
14.2
14-day fixtures
0
Common opponents
7
Mainz 05 W -37.2 performance-index edge
Bayern Munich W
Werder Bremen W
SC Freiburg W
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
4.4 / 7.4 / 88.2
6 bookmakers · Market disagreement 13.2 pp
Market quality High · 0.8 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 34%
William Hill · Bet365 · Marathonbet · BetVictor · Pinnacle
Win rate
80%
1.60
Average goals
3.40
3.20
Average conceded
0.80
Competition
Current season
Mainz 05 W
Season
VfL Wolfsburg W
#14
Position
#2
0
Points
15
6
Played
6
0W 0D 6L
Record
5W 0D 1L
-16
Goal difference
+10
0
League strength signal
87

@ RB Leipzig W
5–0
Away

@ Ingolstadt W
1–6
Away

vs Eintracht Frankfurt W
2–3
Home

@ SC Freiburg W
3–0
Away

vs FC Koln W
0–4
Home

@ Bayern Munich W
2–0
Away

vs Werder Bremen W
1–2
Home

@ Warbeyen W
0–5
Away

vs Ingolstadt W
5–0
Home

@ Wolfsburg II W
1–3
Away

vs Bochum W
3–0
Home

@ Borussia Monchengladbach W
1–3
Away

vs Bayern München II W
6–0
Home

@ Stuttgart W
2–4
Away

@ Turbine Potsdam W
0–4
Away

vs Andernach W
5–2
Home

@ Eintracht Frankfurt II W
2–0
Away

vs Viktoria Berlin W
0–0
Home

vs Meppen W
0–0
Home

@ SC Sand W
2–0
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Mainz 05 W
1.07
xG
VfL Wolfsburg W
3.8
xG
Most likely scores
1.07
Mainz 05 W avg
3.81
VfL Wolfsburg W avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
0.7%
0
4%
1
8.9%
2
15.2%
3
17.5%
4
17.2%
5
36.5%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions