Published model
VfL Wolfsburg
67%
Draw
20%
VfL Osnabrück
13%
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Sat, 31 Oct 2026 · 13:00
13:00
Kickoff
Home
Away
V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
77/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
95%
Effective history
96%
Core completeness
91%
Freshness
8/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
VfL Wolfsburg
Last 5
VfL Osnabrück
5
Matches played
5
16
Goals scored
6
8
Goals conceded
8
+8
Goal difference
-2
60%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
VfL Osnabrück win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
VfL Wolfsburg
64%
Draw
22%
VfL Osnabrück
14%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
VfL Wolfsburg
71%
Draw
18%
VfL Osnabrück
11%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
VfL Wolfsburg
67%
Draw
20%
VfL Osnabrück
13%
VfL Wolfsburg
+3 pp
Draw
-2 pp
VfL Osnabrück
-1 pp
Context evidence
67 → 72
39 → 39
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
70%
Momentum
VfL Wolfsburg
Momentum score
65
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
VfL Osnabrück
Momentum score
29
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
3/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
VfL Wolfsburg
67%
Draw
20%
VfL Osnabrück
13%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 82VfL Wolfsburg
68%
Draw
19%
VfL Osnabrück
13%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
VfL Wolfsburg
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
63.7
Recent 5 strength
68.2
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
0
VfL Osnabrück
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
45.3
Recent 5 strength
37.8
Rest days
13.0
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
3
VfL Wolfsburg +35.2 performance-index edge
1. FC Heidenheim
SC Paderborn 07
Bayern München
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
20%
3.20
Average goals
1.20
1.60
Average conceded
1.60
Competition
Current season
VfL Wolfsburg
Season
VfL Osnabrück
#3
Position
#12
15
Points
8
8
Played
8
4W 3D 1L
Record
2W 2D 4L
+9
Goal difference
-4
76
League strength signal
35

vs 1. FC Heidenheim
3–1
Home

@ 1. FC Nürnberg
4–4
Away

vs Havelse
4–1
Home

vs SV Darmstadt 98
5–1
Home

@ FC St. Pauli
1–0
Away

vs Energie Cottbus
4–4
Home

@ Karlsruher SC
2–5
Away

@ Altglienicke
3–3
Away

@ Hannover 96
0–1
Away

vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
0–0
Home

vs Telstar
3–1
Home

vs Lyon
0–2
Home

vs Verl
3–0
Home

@ Schöningen
2–8
Away

@ SC Paderborn 07
2–1
Away

vs SC Paderborn 07
0–0
Home

@ FC St. Pauli
1–3
Away

vs Bayern München
0–1
Home

@ SC Freiburg
1–1
Away

vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
0–0
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
VfL Wolfsburg
3.02
xG
VfL Osnabrück
1.36
xG
Most likely scores
3.02
VfL Wolfsburg avg
1.34
VfL Osnabrück avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
1.4%
0
5.9%
1
12.2%
2
17.5%
3
18.7%
4
16.4%
5
27.8%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ VfL Bochum
4–1
Away