Published model
Energie Cottbus
30%
Draw
40%
VfL Bochum
30%
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Fri, 30 Oct 2026 · 18:30
18:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
80/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
95%
Effective history
96%
Core completeness
97%
Freshness
8/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Energie Cottbus
Last 5
VfL Bochum
5
Matches played
5
8
Goals scored
6
7
Goals conceded
7
+1
Goal difference
-1
20%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
VfL Bochum win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Energie Cottbus
30%
Draw
40%
VfL Bochum
30%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Energie Cottbus
30%
Draw
40%
VfL Bochum
30%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Energie Cottbus
30%
Draw
40%
VfL Bochum
30%
Energie Cottbus
0 pp
Draw
0 pp
VfL Bochum
0 pp
Context evidence
44 → 45
32 → 35
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
90%
Momentum
Energie Cottbus
Momentum score
26
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
VfL Bochum
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Energie Cottbus
30%
Draw
40%
VfL Bochum
30%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 64Energie Cottbus
27%
Draw
40%
VfL Bochum
33%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Energie Cottbus
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
45.3
Recent 5 strength
52.0
Rest days
14.0
14-day fixtures
0
VfL Bochum
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
52.1
Recent 5 strength
37.8
Rest days
13.3
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
6
Energie Cottbus -1.6 performance-index edge
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Arminia Bielefeld
Hannover 96
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
Win rate
20%
1.60
Average goals
1.20
1.40
Average conceded
1.40
Competition
Current season
Energie Cottbus
Season
VfL Bochum
#9
Position
#16
9
Points
7
8
Played
8
2W 3D 3L
Record
2W 1D 5L
-1
Goal difference
-4
46
League strength signal
23

vs 1. FC Nürnberg
1–1
Home

@ SV Darmstadt 98
3–1
Away

@ Lech Poznan
2–2
Away

vs FC St. Pauli
1–1
Home

@ Karlsruher SC
0–3
Away

@ VfL Wolfsburg
4–4
Away

vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3–4
Home

vs FC Augsburg
0–2
Home

@ Arminia Bielefeld
3–0
Away

vs Hannover 96
3–1
Home

vs Werder Bremen
2–4
Home

@ Dynamo Dresden
1–2
Away

vs Red Bull Salzburg
0–5
Home

vs Mlada Boleslav
2–4
Home

vs Hertha BSC II
3–1
Home

vs Altglienicke
1–1
Home

@ SSV Jahn Regensburg
0–1
Away

vs SV Wehen
2–1
Home

@ MSV Duisburg
2–1
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Energie Cottbus
1.54
xG
VfL Bochum
1.15
xG
Most likely scores
1.53
Energie Cottbus avg
1.14
VfL Bochum avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
7%
0
18.8%
1
24.6%
2
21.5%
3
15%
4
7.5%
5
5.5%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ Hannover 96
2–1
Away