Published model
Arminia Bielefeld
43%
Draw
39%
Eintracht Braunschweig
18%
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Fri, 30 Oct 2026 · 18:30
18:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
81/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
95%
Effective history
96%
Core completeness
96%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
0/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
Arminia Bielefeld
Last 5
Eintracht Braunschweig
5
Matches played
5
8
Goals scored
3
7
Goals conceded
9
+1
Goal difference
-6
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Eintracht Braunschweig win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
Arminia Bielefeld
39%
Draw
40%
Eintracht Braunschweig
21%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
Arminia Bielefeld
48%
Draw
38%
Eintracht Braunschweig
14%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
Arminia Bielefeld
43%
Draw
39%
Eintracht Braunschweig
18%
Arminia Bielefeld
+4 pp
Draw
-1 pp
Eintracht Braunschweig
-3 pp
Context evidence
51 → 55
36 → 33
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
80%
Momentum
Arminia Bielefeld
Momentum score
83
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
Eintracht Braunschweig
Momentum score
59
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
4/5
Reliability audit
• No bookmaker market is available for independent calibration.
Published model
Arminia Bielefeld
43%
Draw
39%
Eintracht Braunschweig
18%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 73Arminia Bielefeld
51%
Draw
33%
Eintracht Braunschweig
16%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
Arminia Bielefeld
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
59.7
Recent 5 strength
56.6
Rest days
12.3
14-day fixtures
1
Eintracht Braunschweig
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
40.7
Recent 5 strength
34.8
Rest days
13.3
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
4
Arminia Bielefeld +51.3 performance-index edge
VfL Osnabrück
VfL Bochum
Hertha BSC
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
no market data
40%
Win rate
20%
1.60
Average goals
0.60
1.40
Average conceded
1.80
Competition
Current season
Arminia Bielefeld
Season
Eintracht Braunschweig
#8
Position
#15
11
Points
7
8
Played
8
3W 2D 3L
Record
2W 1D 5L
0
Goal difference
-2
52
League strength signal
26

vs VfL Osnabrück
2–1
Home

@ VfL Bochum
0–1
Away

vs Rot-Weiß Essen
2–2
Home

vs 1. FC Heidenheim
2–2
Home

@ SV Darmstadt 98
2–1
Away

vs FC St. Pauli
2–2
Home

@ 1. FC Nürnberg
4–1
Away

@ SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
2–2
Away

vs Energie Cottbus
3–0
Home

@ Karlsruher SC
2–1
Away

vs MSV Duisburg
1–1
Home

@ Bologna
0–4
Away

@ Imst
0–10
Away

@ FC Gutersloh
0–3
Away

@ Peckeloh
3–7
Away

vs Hertha BSC
6–1
Home

@ 1. FC Kaiserslautern
2–0
Away

vs VfL Bochum
1–1
Home

@ Preußen Münster
2–3
Away

vs 1. FC Nürnberg
1–1
Home

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
Arminia Bielefeld
1.77
xG
Eintracht Braunschweig
0.94
xG
Most likely scores
1.77
Arminia Bielefeld avg
0.94
Eintracht Braunschweig avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
6.8%
0
18.1%
1
23.8%
2
22.7%
3
14.6%
4
8.4%
5
5.6%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

@ 1. FC Kaiserslautern
1–0
Away