Published model
VfL Osnabrück
19%
Draw
40%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
41%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 13:30
13:30
Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
91/100
Excellent · confidence cap 85
20-match history
95%
Effective history
96%
Core completeness
91%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
10/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
VfL Osnabrück
Last 5
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
5
Matches played
5
6
Goals scored
5
8
Goals conceded
9
-2
Goal difference
-4
20%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
SpVgg Greuther Fürth win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
VfL Osnabrück
20%
Draw
40%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
40%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
VfL Osnabrück
19%
Draw
40%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
41%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
VfL Osnabrück
19%
Draw
40%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
41%
VfL Osnabrück
-1 pp
Draw
0 pp
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
+1 pp
Context evidence
39 → 38
44 → 42
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
70%
Momentum
VfL Osnabrück
Momentum score
29
The latest results are weaker than the earlier part of the sample.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Momentum score
50
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
5/5
Published model
VfL Osnabrück
19%
Draw
40%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
41%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 58VfL Osnabrück
27%
Draw
37%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
36%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
VfL Osnabrück
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
45.3
Recent 5 strength
37.8
Rest days
7.0
14-day fixtures
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
48.0
Recent 5 strength
43.4
Rest days
8.1
14-day fixtures
1
Common opponents
5
VfL Osnabrück -3.1 performance-index edge
VfL Bochum
Hertha BSC
Eintracht Braunschweig
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
41.6 / 26.3 / 32.1
4 bookmakers · Market disagreement 19.6 pp
Market quality Medium · 1.3 pp dispersion
Market blend enabled · dynamic market weight 25%
William Hill · BetVictor · Pinnacle · 1xBet
Win rate
20%
1.20
Average goals
1.00
1.60
Average conceded
1.80
Competition
Current season
VfL Osnabrück
Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
#12
Position
#10
8
Points
9
8
Played
8
2W 2D 4L
Record
2W 3D 3L
-4
Goal difference
-1
35
League strength signal
43

@ Arminia Bielefeld
2–1
Away

vs Dynamo Dresden
1–1
Home

vs Djurgardens IF
0–1
Home

@ VfL Bochum
4–1
Away

@ Wiedenbrück
0–3
Away

@ Holstein Kiel
1–1
Away

vs Hertha BSC
1–3
Home

vs Eintracht Braunschweig
3–1
Home

vs Bayern München
1–4
Home

@ VfL Bochum
0–1
Away

@ Spelle-Venhaus
3–5
Away

vs 1. FC Magdeburg
0–3
Home

@ 1. FC Heidenheim
4–3
Away

vs SC Paderborn 07
0–2
Home

@ Nordhorn
0–7
Away

@ FK Jablonec
1–0
Away

@ Stuttgart II
3–4
Away

vs SSV Ulm 1846
1–1
Home

@ SV Wehen
2–3
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
VfL Osnabrück
1.4
xG
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.33
xG
Most likely scores
1.41
VfL Osnabrück avg
1.33
SpVgg Greuther Fürth avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
6.4%
0
17.8%
1
24%
2
22.1%
3
15.3%
4
8.5%
5
5.9%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs 1. FC Magdeburg
1–1
Home