Published model
1. FC Magdeburg
49%
Draw
35%
Karlsruher SC
16%
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Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 13:00
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Kickoff
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V3 model research
V3 data reliability
Reliability limits confidence when evidence coverage or source integrity is weak.
84/100
High · confidence cap 82
20-match history
95%
Effective history
96%
Core completeness
97%
Freshness
10/10
Market evidence
2/15
Common-opponent evidence
Match context
Recent team performance and league context in one place, using the same data inputs that support Navurex Match Intelligence.
Team data
Latest completed matches · raw recent form
1. FC Magdeburg
Last 5
Karlsruher SC
5
Matches played
5
8
Goals scored
6
5
Goals conceded
7
+3
Goal difference
-1
40%
Recent performance
Form and recent completed fixtures for both teams in one place.

Last 20 completed matches
Draw
Karlsruher SC win
V1 vs V2 transparency
V1 is the canonical baseline. Contextual V2 applies venue, recency and opponent-strength signals, then the final model blends the two conservatively.
V1 baseline
Canonical model
1. FC Magdeburg
47%
Draw
38%
Karlsruher SC
15%
Raw contextual V2
Before conservative blend
1. FC Magdeburg
51%
Draw
33%
Karlsruher SC
16%
Final V2 blend
Published model before live news
1. FC Magdeburg
49%
Draw
35%
Karlsruher SC
16%
1. FC Magdeburg
+2 pp
Draw
-3 pp
Karlsruher SC
+1 pp
Context evidence
55 → 59
34 → 38
Venue samples
5 / 5
Opponent coverage
90%
Momentum
1. FC Magdeburg
Momentum score
47
Recent results are broadly consistent across the available sample.
Karlsruher SC
Momentum score
86
The most recent results are stronger than the earlier part of the sample.
5/5
Reliability audit
• Market data is shown as reference only because source quality is limited.
Published model
1. FC Magdeburg
49%
Draw
35%
Karlsruher SC
16%
V3 shadow probabilities
V3 evidence confidence 821. FC Magdeburg
57%
Draw
29%
Karlsruher SC
14%
V3 confidence is an evidence score, not the probability that the top pick will win.
1. FC Magdeburg
20/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
62.9
Recent 5 strength
54.0
Rest days
6.0
14-day fixtures
2
Karlsruher SC
19/20
V3 research coverage
0/100
Fatigue risk
20-match strength
40.3
Recent 5 strength
42.4
Rest days
6.0
14-day fixtures
2
Common opponents
6
1. FC Magdeburg +23.9 performance-index edge
Hannover 96
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1. FC Nürnberg
Performance index is a comparative score, not probability points.
League bridge
same league
No cross-league prior is needed for this matchup.
Market consensus
55.6 / 21.6 / 22.8
1 bookmakers · Market disagreement 8.8 pp
Market quality Limited · 0.0 pp dispersion
Market quality gate blocked blending · reference only — not blended into V3
1xBet
Win rate
40%
1.60
Average goals
1.20
1.00
Average conceded
1.40
Competition
Current season
1. FC Magdeburg
Season
Karlsruher SC
#6
Position
#13
13
Points
8
8
Played
8
4W 1D 3L
Record
2W 2D 4L
+3
Goal difference
-4
62
League strength signal
32

@ Dynamo Dresden
2–0
Away

vs Hannover 96
3–0
Home

@ SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1–1
Away

vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
3–0
Home

@ Hertha BSC
2–1
Away

vs Holstein Kiel
2–0
Home

@ Bahlinger SC
0–4
Away

@ VfL Osnabrück
0–3
Away

vs Eintracht Braunschweig
1–6
Home

vs West Ham
1–1
Home

@ Schöningen
0–4
Away

@ BSG Chemie Leipzig
1–4
Away

vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
0–1
Home

@ Holstein Kiel
1–3
Away

vs Hertha BSC
1–0
Home

@ 1. FC Nürnberg
1–0
Away

vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
2–0
Home

@ SC Paderborn 07
4–3
Away

vs VfL Bochum
4–1
Home

@ Preußen Münster
1–3
Away

Last 20 completed matches
Simulation
Scorelines, expected goals and total-goal distributions generated from the Navurex model.
Expected goals
Projected scoring output before kickoff.
1. FC Magdeburg
1.64
xG
Karlsruher SC
1.02
xG
Most likely scores
1.66
1. FC Magdeburg avg
1.02
Karlsruher SC avg
Total goals distribution
Probability of the combined match score.
6.9%
0
18.6%
1
24.7%
2
21.5%
3
15%
4
7.6%
5
5.8%
6+
Strength radar
Five core rating dimensions

vs 1. FC Nürnberg
0–1
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